Round 8 (2023) B&F

RESULTS

HANDICAPS/H2H

Port Adelaide (-12.5)

We're going to take Port at home who look to regain their best forward, whilst Essendon are still without theirs. Port also regain their skipper, Jonas, which should be a huge boost down back. A massive win for Port on the weekend and one that should really kick start their season. Port have comfortably accounted for the Bombers the last few times these sides have met and have begun to build the most respectable form line of these two sides this season. Essendon are once again looking like one of the most vulnerable teams to the big men as they miss a few key defenders and had Hawkins and Cameron rip them apart on the weekend. Marshall, Dixon, and Finlayson are Port's main avenue to goal and will place a massive part in putting Essendon away in front of the home fans. Port are virtually full strength, whilst Essendon lack some key position players with Laverde and Stewart out which may force probably their most consistent forward this year in Langford down back.

Bookmaker: PuntersPal

Units: 2

Collingwood (vs. SYD) Second Half line (-7.5)

Collingwood have been running all over teams for a while now and we feel they'll be hungry to avenge the prelim loss to the Swans and continue the trend. The Swans also having been a poor second half team this year.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

TOTAL POINTS

GC/MEL (o165.5)

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 2

PA/ESS (o169.5)

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 1

CARL/BL (o168.5)

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Rory Laird (u29.5)

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

He hasn't looked right in the last fortnight and gets no rest against the toughest team at the toughest ground for mids.

Jordan Dawson (u26.5)

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1

Is shaping up as one of the most damaging midfielders in the comp when he's able to get ball on boot and run free through the midfield. Dawson has shown he is an elite runner and can break through stoppages and play multiple positions to hurt the opposition. Loving the unders here as I see Blicavs as the perfect match up for Dawson today which will add to Geelong's already highly restrictive game.

Tim Kelly (o27.5)

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Has looked back to his best this season and has cleared in 4/7 games with 2 of those misses coming when he has received closed opposition attention. We don't see tags from Richmond and saw Anderson really get off the chain against them last week.

Christian Petracca (o27.5)

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Great matchup and has cleared his last 3 against the GC.

Lachie Whitfield (o22.5)

Lachie has cleared his last 5. We've got WB ranked 2nd is DESKCK concession. He still cleared whilst being tagged last week an has gone o27.5 the last 6 times he's played the dogs. Easy bet this one.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.77

Units: 1

Brad Crouch (o26.5)

After a tough few weeks on ball (particularly last week against the Power) Brad runs into the easiest matchup in the comp on his favourite deck. This is a strangely low line and we had it at 28.5.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1

Luke Davies Uniacke (u27.5)

Hasn't quite looked right since having his calf injury flagged and with the potential of Seb Ross giving him a tag today there isn't really any other way you can play him. His hot start to the year has given him a high line which we can now take advantage of.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.92

Units: 1

Brad Hill (o19.5)

Has been having a great season under his old boss Ross! Has hit this in 5/7 games throughout the season and now gets the second best match up for uncontested footy other than the saints themselves. Should have a day out on the wing roaming around and doing what he does best.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.80

Units: 1

Callum Mills (o22.5)

This is a low line for Mills due to being played out of position out of necessity in the last few weeks. Cleared this in 18/25 in 2022 and 14/18 in 2021. The ins for the Swans this week should see him spending even less time out on the wing and more time on the ball.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.80

Units: 1

Dylan Shiel (u23.5)

Shiel has low TOG and was shifted to a half forward role that he played successfully last week. Essendon look keen on having Stringer's bigger body around the contest and with Merrett potentially having more upside this week, Shiel looks to be the one to make way.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 1

Will Setterfield (u22.5)

5/7 games under this year with the two overs coming at the start of the season against Hawthorn and Gold Coast that are two of the softest match ups in the league. Since then, Essendon have experimented with their midfield and added Stringer as the big bodied mid with guys going in and out of the rotation. Setterfield looks to have a secure role as the lock down midfielder, but this Essendon midfield looks to be the most stacked it has been all season. Port are one of the most limiting sides in the comps for overall possessions and also for mids. This one shapes up as a cracker!

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1

GOAL SCORERS

Cooper Sharman

Was a really good goalkicker as a fwd in 21, multiple goals in all 4 matches. Played a lot last year as a defender, but slides in this week to replace Cordy as a forward. Should get some chances against North who have struggled with key forwards and and just struggled in general.

Bookmaker: TopSport

Units:

0.8U 2+ $3.60

0.3U 3+ $11

0.1U 4+ $38

Sam Powell-Pepper Essendon have struggled with small/medium forwards this season and are generally leaking goals. SPP has had multiple scores in 6/7 games so far and has good history against the Dons kicking 4 last year. Port are in good form atm and look set to kick a winning score in front of their home crowd. Bookmaker: Bet365

1U 2+ $2.70 0.35U 3+ $6 0.15U 4+ $20