Round 5 (2025)

Hawthorn -17.5 (vs. Port Adelaide)

The Hawks are better than Port in pretty much every available metric. The Power have only beaten the Tigers at home and looked terrible against pretty much everyone else including the Bombers who are not good. The Hawks will want to put in a good performance after losing the prelim last year and may get back James Worpel and Connor McDonald meaning they’re much back at full strength.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

—- Adelaide vs. Geelong —-

Ollie Dempsey AGS

Strong heats maps across all games this season. Watched him closely against Melbourne where he failed to score and he had multiple opportunities. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Patrick Dangerfield Goals

Market hasn’t quite caught up to his role as a permanent forward. Has cover 2+ 3/4 so far and will see plenty of opportunities in what looks like a shootout. Knows this ground like the back of his hand after many years as a Crow.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.9U 2+ $2.45

0.4U 3+ $6.00

0.2U 4+ $18.00

0.05U 5+ $70

Jordan Dawson u26.5

Prime target for Tom Atkins and Chris Scott has said as much. Especially important to shut him down if Rankine misses. Historically a good number to take the under on with Dawson. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Tom Stewart u23.5

That’s right, we’re going again. Very unlucky last week when Goodwin set up a surprise tag on Holmes which gave the Cats a spare behind the ball. Stewart has torched the Crows a few times and they won’t let that happen again. Also carrying an injury which makes him a sub risk.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

Matt Crouch MOST Disposals

Knocks on most of the guys in this group. Mrouch forever a pig and with Dawson getting attention and Rankine possibly out, he’ll be the guy.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $3.75

Units: 0.3

Friday Night AFL

COLL/SYD

Not seeing heaps tonight yet and don't love posting these as the only play (high book margin, low liquid) but I'll give you a few options. 

Leading Disposals Group A - Josh Daicos

Josh is a great option with Houston out. The way I see this one playing out the ball will spend a fair bit of time in the Pies defence. Nick will get tagged by James Jordon. Roberts has Bice to compete with down back for the Swans now and Pendles is a low TOG sub risk.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $3.70

Units: 0.35 

Next Best: TAB $3.75 (Group A, not quite as good as it has Heeney)

Saturday AFL

NM/GC

Bailey Humphrey Goals

Is getting pushed forward more and more as Sam Flanders gains fitness. 

0.3U 2+ $4.00

Sam Flanders o26.5

We’ve hit a low spot here for Flanders. Has slowly been increasing his midfield minutes. On a sunny day against a low pressure team he should have built enough fitness to hit this mark now. Was hovering at the 30.5 mark last season. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Tom De Koning 25+ Disposals

Gone under this twice this year in weather effected games. It’s 30 degrees and a fast track in Adelaide today. Ranks #1 in grabbing it out of the ruck and should rip through Bailey Williams. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.10*

Units: 0.8

Harley Reid u20.5

Reid will be the major focus for the midfield defence of the Blues. Was better lsat week but has a poor record covering this number and a poor record away from home. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

MEL/ESS

Kysaiah Pickett Goals

Looked great last week without the accuracy. Starting high at clearance and getting lost in transition. No one in the Bombers defence can tie his shoe laces.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units:

0.65U 2+ $2.35

0.35 3+ $5.75

0.15U 4+ $15.00

0.05U 5+ $51.00

Dylan Shiel o22.5 Disposals

Outstanding in the midfield against Port and should be backed in again for full mid time. This is a low number for him historically in a full time mid role. The Dees are incredibly slow in the middle and have been giving up big numbers in there. Had 28 last time against the Dees. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.97

Units: 0.9

Sunday Footy

FREO/RICH

Jeremy Sharp 20+

Great spot for wingers against the Tigers. Getting a sub affected price here.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

StK/GWS

Either team by 15.5 or less

Keen on the Saints here but don’t quire have the cojones to back them outright so will go the tri-bet option. Rossy knows how to coach this ground and will keep things tight. 

Boomaker: Sportsbet/Ladbrokes $2.65

Units: 0.55

Jack Steele o22.5

Suited to this kind of game. Should run with Green which will keep him near the action. Historically a good number for him.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Jack Sinclair u26.5

The Giants should go to him here with someone like Bedford to stop the Saints transition game. Norwood is a tough place for outside uncontested ball. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Conor Rozee u25.5

The template is there for shutting down the Power and the Hawks are experts at it. Nash should go to Rozee here in a game we’re expecting the Hawks to win easily.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Josh Treacy Goals

Seems a silly price for solid coverage and a probable blowout.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.8U 3+ $1.83

0.4U 4+ $3.20  

0.2U 5+ $6.50

Late one...

Jack Macrae 30+

Should be free to crab around in confined spaces at Norwood with Bedford most likely going to Sinclair.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.08

Units: 0.85