Round 4 (2022)

RESULTS

POSSESSIONS

Paddy Dangerfield (u26.5)

Bookmakers have some kind of sordid love-affair with this guy. It’s not 2016 any more people. Paddy has been on the decline for years and is no longer a high possession player. We’ll even take u25.5 for as long as it’s on the table. For the last 3 years Brisbane have ranked in the top 3 for limiting opposition midfield possession and Paddy isn’t gonna have it easy.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.80

Units: 1

Result: 19 disposals (WIN)

Shannon Hurn (o21.5)

This in our opinion is a straight handicapping error. Shannon’s median from 2021 is 25. He’s started the season 24, 18, 27. How we end up at 21.5, I’m not quite sure.

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 17 disposals (LOSS)

Josh Dunkley (o27.5)

Hunky Dunks seems to have solidified his midfield spot after having a piss and moan in the off-season. The Tigers mid is the easiest kill in the AFL atm with Dow, Graham, Ross and Prestia not much of a match for the Josh-beast. We’d not be surprised to see Dunks end the season with a 29.5 line.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.87

Units: 1

Result: 37 disposals (WIN)

Touk Miller (o28.5)

Touk-Touk has copped some seriously hard tags to start the season and it looks like he’ll avoid one here against the Blues. Touk is a tough competitor with a mean of 32 in 2021 and although he’s not getting as many uncontested touches due to Stewie Dew changing things up a little, we’re confident he fights back here.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Result: 32 disposals (WIN)

Tom Mitchell (u31.5)

Do bookmakers watch football? It’s hard to say. Mitchell’s CBAs have halved in 2021 and he’s now a hybrid fwd-pocket with Sam Mitchell opting to modernise his midfield by casting off the like of Jaeger, the Chad and Titch. We’re ignoring the fact that the Cats have started the season poorly in the middle because this line is about 3 points off.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 32 disposals (LOSS)

Jack Sinclair (o23.5)

We love this spot for Jack. We’re not too sure whether he’ll play majority midfield time or behind the ball, but you know what? Who cares. Behind the ball he’s cleared this line all year and if the goes into the midfield, well he won’t have trouble getting near the ball because the Hawks like to give up plenty of it inside.

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 35 disposals (WIN)

TOTAL POINTS

Market: NM vs. SYD u161.5

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.88

Units: 1

Result: 161 (WIN)

Market: GEE vs. CARL u161.5

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.88

Units: 1

Result: 154 (WIN)

GOAL SCORERS

James Harmes

Has been playing the high half-forward role and getting on the scoreboard. Good price here.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.20 (AGS)

Units: 2

Result: 2.0 (WIN)*

Reef McInnness

Reef's been playing deep fwd in the VFL and has a bright future. You've got to get onto these ones before they kick their first big bag.

Bookmaker: Bet365 (AGS/2+/3+/4+)

Units: 3

Result: 0.1 (LOSS)*

Jarman Impey

Should be filling the forward pressure role that he did with moderate success last year. Great price.

Bookmaker: PointsBet (AGS)

Units: 1

Result: 0.1 (LOSS)*

Jack Martin

Carlton are set to reshuffle their forward set up today with Pittonet out and De Koning being first ruck. Silvagni will be the back up ruck. Jack Martin was the sub last week and will be used as a lead up forward. Against hid old team and the revenge matchup, we're getting some good odds here.

Bookmaker: PointsBet (2+/3+/4+)

Units: 1

Result: 0.2 (LOSS)*