Round 4 (2023) B&F

RESULTS

Handicaps and H2Hs

Brisbane $2.10

We're grabbing this one ahead of teams as we think we may see the Lions start favourites. Brisbane are huge at home and should very rarely go into a game at the Gabba as underdogs. Brisbane have a huge motivational factor as they're currently rolling with a negative win record whilst the Pies are potentially in a bit of a let down spot after cruising to 3-0 and having to travel away from home for the first time this year. The Pies have some crucial outs in Cameron who's ability to cover the ground is instrumental to the Pies and no Cox means they go in with no notable ruckman and will potentially have to play McStay or Johnson out of position. Howe is a massive out and I have a lot of question marks around Frampton which makes the Pies vulnerable to the quality tall timber of Daniher, Gunston, and Hipwood. Brisbane on the other hand look ultra healthy and should almost have a full list of players to choose from. Brisbane at full strength at home is where I want to have our money.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units: 2

Adelaide $1.80

We were keen on the Crows before this season started. They ran in to some extreme Autumn heat in Sydney which didn't suit them and then were right in it before spraying it everywhere against the Tigers. A big win in the showdown showed their true colours. There's something smelly coming out of Freo on the other hand. Running over the top of a one-legged West Coast team has only slightly papered over the crack of losing at home to North and getting nowhere near it against the Saints.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units: 2

GOAL SCORERS

Jeremy Cameron

Simply a must bet this week. Jezza is in imperious form and comes up against the worst team of the last 2 years in defending his position. They've also committed to a smaller defence, preferring Scrimshaw's rebound against a pure stopper.

Bookmaker: Bet365

0.7U 4+ $3.60

0.3U 5+ $7

0.15U 6+ $15

Reef McInness

McStay + Johnson will rotate through the ruck, McInnes will be playing out of the goal square and after a couple games as sub is ready to run out a full game. The bloke is just a natural goal kicker, and is a difficult matchup and will likely get a favourable matchup here.

Bookmaker: PointsBet

0.8U 2+ $4.25

0.3U 3+ $13

0.1U 4+ $41

TOTAL POINTS

BRIS vs. COLL over 173.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

SAINTS vs. GOLD COAST under 162.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Jade Gresham (20+/25+)

Gresham loves the Dome. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s averaged a huge 4 disposals more there than playing away. With the loss of Steele, he’s also see a bit more opportunity to play higher up the ground and fold back towards the forward 50. Gold Coast have been easy to move the ball through the middle against so far this season, giving up +9% on midfield possession.

Bookmaker: TAB

Units:

1.5U 20+ $1.80

0.5U 25+ $3.50

Tom Barrass (15+)

After a plague has run through the Eagles team sheet, they’re short on distributors. We expect Hurn to see a lot of the ball as the Demons dominate the midfield battle but also Barrass as he’s one of the more trusted heads back there. He also saw a big spike last year as the big birds fell around him last season. Expect to see more left foot bombs from the big Tahitian surf god.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.68

Units: 1.5

Brodie Grundy (20+/25+)

Had 21 last week vs Ladhams and now gets a weak WCE ruck department that should probably be an even easier match up. Williams has allowed Darcy and Flynn to go +5 on their season averages and similarly allowed the same in 2022. We see Grundy averaging 19-20+ when rucking solo so happy to go down this route today.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Pointsbet

Units:

1.5U 20+ $1.88 Sportsbet

0.5U 25+ $4.50 Pointsbet

Conor Nash (under 21.5)

Not convinced that Nash has the accumulating capabilities to consistently go over this total. Had 24 against a North midfield that missed their two best players and hasn’t been able to pull together strong enough games when given the opportunity at AFL or VFL level.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1.5U