Round 24 (2025)

Essendon/Carlton

Harry McKay Goals

Playing it straight this week after a miss last week on Moir. Gets another great matchup against a banged up Laverde.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Next Best: Pointsbet

Units: 

0.8U 3+ $2.15

0.3 4+ $4.00

0.05U 5+ $9.00

Liam McMahon Goals

Incredibly has cleared the 2+ mark in 27 of his last VFL/AFL games. Is out there playing for a 2026 contract. Most likely has already got one for a year at least but can put some dollars and years on it with a bag here. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

0.8U 2+ $2.20

0.25 3+ $5.00

0.05U 4+ $16.00

Nick Haynes 20+ Disposals

Pushed up onto a wing and looked great against the Power. Folds back behind the ball as a spare tall which is a great spot to get some easy touches against the Dons. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.65

Units: 0.6

Collingwood/Melbourne

COLL -21.5

Showed some improvements last week after a rough week. They dominated the inside 50 count and have a must-win game on their hands to stay in the top 4. The old blokes can throw the kitchen sink at this one with the pre-finals bye week off. Should be more open and free flowing than their usual encounters which favours and second half blowout. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Dabble $1.90

Units: 1

Josh Daicos 30+ (29+)

Bookmaker: TAB $1.80

Units: 1.1

Port Adelaide/Gold Coast

Port Adelaide +12.5 (First Half)

We'll big emotional start to the game from the Power. Lots of pressure on the back of some pre-game goodbyes to Kenny and Boak. Might fade as the game goes on with a fair few young players in the team and the Suns needing to roll them for top 4.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

A few low lines from tough past matchups. Both senior players who will be wanting to send off their mates in style against an easy matchup....

Conor Rozee Disposals

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units: 

0.7U 25+ $1.87

0.25U 30+ $4.50

Zak Butters Disposals

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.15

Units: 

0.6U 30+ $2.15

0.25U 35+ $5.25

0.1U 40+ $13.00

Some GS value add on PA....

Willie Rioli Goals

Gets a good matchup and loves playing at home. Adding some value to the Power play. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Next Best: Bet365

0.5U 2+ $3.30

0.15U 3+ $9.00

Travis Boak AGS

The obvious play but it has to be done. Playing in his last game, they'll be looking for him everywhere. Especially late. 

Bookmaker: Unibet $2.33

Next Best: Pointsbet/Ladbrokes/Bet365 $2.15

Units: 0.7

Kane Farrell o19.5

Rozee in the midfield. No Sinn. No Burgoyne. No Burton. It's all on Kane and he's covered this one in 7 of his last 9. No dew forecast so the usual AO night troubles won't find us. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Lads $1.87

Units: 1

Brayden Fiorini u22.5 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

West Coast/Sydney

TOTAL o165.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Second half o83.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1.05

North Melbourne/Adelaide

Jordan Dawson 25+ Disposals

The Brownlow could be on the line here and the players will know it. Not a huge factor in games that are competitive but if this one gets a bit of out hand in the second half, Dawson will be looking for cheapies and his team mates will oblige. Last time out at Docklands he dominated a far superior midfield than North’s for 27 touches. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1.1

Dan Curtin 20+ Disposals (19+)

Similar argument to be made here. All the hype in the last fortnight has been around Murphy Reid for the Rising Star and it could come down to this game in the memory of voters. Has had a few down games recently but has still gone over this in 5 of his last 8 games. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.30

Next Best: Betr $2.50

Units: 0.7

Caleb Daniel u25.5 Disposals

Since McKercher has returned to the backline, Daniel has only covered this one in 5/11 games. The Crows will go full dress rehearsal today with next week off and potentially only 2 games in the next month. They’re the second most restrictive team over the last 10 games. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

Harry Sheezel u31.5 Disposals

We get a skewed number here against a Crows side giving up -10% uncontested ball, the most in the league right now. The role is great for Sheeze but you don’t rack up 54 without going unnoticed. Should attract some attention around stoppage. 6/22 under this number this season. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet u31.5 $1.77

Units: 1.1

Geelong/Richmond

Bailey Smith Disposals

This goes against everything I believe in but here goes. The pig outs are gonna be so extreme, I think the Sheeze/Titch 54 might be in danger. The Tigers will have no choice but to put numbers behind the ball unlike what they did last week against North which plays into the blond twit’s hands. Even I they don’t, mids who play defensive half football have been putting some stupid numbers on the Tigers. R22 (Windy 32, NWM 33), R21 (Anderson 38), R20 (Naicos 42). Added to that, the fame hunger will be pushing him to the Brownlow dais.

Bookmaker: Betr/Bet365

Units:

1U 35+ $1.90 (Betr)

0.25 40+ $4.00 (Bet365)

Angus Sheldrick o21.5

Love this number. Has been getting more opportunities in the guts and covered in his last 3 games. West Coast are horrific when it comes to the contest in the middle which is pretty Sheldrick’s only thing.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.98

Units: 0.95

Liam Baker o21.5 

Will sit behind the ball and in this role he’s showed that he can accumulate. Without Maric, there’ll be plenty of uncontested ball up for grabs. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Liam Ryan Goals

Expecting a free-flowing contest today and there’s some value in the Eagles as the Swans throw the magnets around. The Swans don’t have a great matchup for this guy and he might find himself on someone like the Lizard. In 6 of his last 7 games he’s had at least 3 shots at goal. If trying to win the club goal kicking award over Cripps is an incentive then we’ll take that. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units: 

0.55U 2+ $2.85

0.2U 3+ $7.00

0.05 4+ $23.00

Western Bulldogs/Fremantle

Fremantle +21.5 

The Dogs line here gets skewed by some big performances against poor teams or teams in tough spots. They’ve pumped ESS, WC and a GWS team off a 5-day break. In other games around that they’ve struggled against MEL and lost to ADE and BRI. Freo have the match-ups needed to challenge the Dogs. Their talls in Cox and Pearce can break even against Naughton and Darcy. Wagner and Brayshaw can run with Bont and Richards. Then up front, their trio of talls (plus a resting Jackson) will create having for the Dogs. Freo have one of the best records against the top 8, the Dogs one of the worst (for a top 9 team). It's unlikely that the Dockers just lie down here. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 1

GWS/St Kilda

Jack Macrae u24.5

We got hooked a few weeks ago on Macrae but the scenario remains the same, but this time the match up suits us. GWS in their last 10, have improved out of sight in clearance and contest and Macrae is still being deprioritised in favour of youth. His TOG continues to be lower than the first 16 rounds. Last 5 TOG is 64% and the rest of the season is 81%. No easy touches out there today with the Giants fighting for survival.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Jack Sinclair u27.5

Had been struggling prior to some easy matchups lately. The Cats, Demons, Bombers and Tigers are the 4 easiest in the league and they appear in his last 5. The GWS matchup is the hardest in the league and with Nas in the middle, the Giants will prioritise sending attention to him as the Saints most destructive distributor.  

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Western Bulldogs/Fremantle

Marcus Bontempelli u28.5 Disposals

Bont has been tearing it up against some junk lately to get the Dogs to this point where they just have to win. But Freo aren’t Essendon, Melbourne or the Eagles. This will have finals like intensity with uncontested ball being tougher than usual. The Dockers also have Wagner and Brayshaw to rotate on him at clearance. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Nat Fyfe u18.5 Disposals

Not sure what’s going on here. Maybe the books are putting up a send-off bump in his potential last game. There’s a reason he hasn’t gotten through a full game  since 2024. He’s cooked. Inside mids don’t do particularly well against the Dogs anyway.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Brisbane/Hawthorn

Massimo D’Ambrosio u21.5 

Great let down spot for Mass. Lots of easy ball to be munched in the last month. But this is a regular season final with a lot on the line. 6/23 on this line this season.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Bet365/Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Zac Bailey u22.5 Disposals 

Bailey has been slicing up a few lower pressure teams in transition over the last 6 weeks but still only covering this number at 50%. The rest of the season he’s going at 5/23 on this number. The Hawks will be kitchen sinking it today and have gone -7% on uncontested ball this season and -12% in their last 10.   

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Bet365/Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Josh Treacy Goals

We’re on the Dockers today and Treacy enjoyed his time last time out against the Dogs. Showed good form last week and will get plenty of ball pumped his way against what is a not a great transition defence in the Dogs.

Bookmaker: Betr/Pointsbet

Next Best: Sportsbet

Units: 

1U 2+ $1.85

0.3U 3+ $3.70 

0.15 4+ $9.50