Round 23 (2025)

St Kilda/Essendon

St Kilda -28.5

The Saints have won 3 in a row without really blowing us away, but they've done what needs to be done to get the wins. In all the 4 weeks prior to that they covered the line against Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle. The results for Essendon on the other hand have been a little deceiving. The weather helped keep them in it 2 weeks ago against the Swans and last week the Cats on a 5 day break didn't look particularly interested in putting a big score on. If they hadn't already ,the Bombers have definitely now hit the injury cliff with the team being put on the park more resembling a VFL development squad. They will find it almost impossible to penetrate the stinginess of Ross the boss, who even in a dead rubber you just know turn it into a grind anyway. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Dabble $1.90

Units: 1

Mason Wood Goals

Buying Saints value here. Decided he’d rather shpritz the nurry all over the shop last week, taking 3 shots for 0 goals. Has taken 21 shots in the last 8 weeks for a total of 7 goals. Historically, he has been a decent shot so we're expecting some positive regression here. Basically, no matter who he plays on the match up will be favourable.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.6U 2+ + $2.65

0.15U 3+ $7.00

0.05U 4+ $22.00

0.02U 5+ $90.00

Hugo Garcia 20+ Disposals

Opportunity meet match up in a beautiful way here. He has a full midfield role as the Saints look to develop the younger players. Essendon have lost all of their first choice midfielders with the exception of Durham who is injured.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Jack Steele u20.5 Disposals

If you're not going to play the man in the midfield for his 200th game, then this new role is here to stay. The last few weeks he has been pressing up the ground in a high half forward and being hit up on the lead. Regardless of how bad the Bombers are, it’s a very hard role with which to cover such a high line. Also carrying some injuries and has to be some sort of sub-risk in a probable blowout.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90 

Units: 1

Fremantle/Brisbane

Brisbane H1 +2.5

The Lions have been an elite bounce-back team over the last few seasons, only losing once in the week following a loss. That was in Round 14 this year against the Giants which was a game that they actually won by 23 points on XScore. Expecting them to come out hard here with the top 4 on the line and some reinforcements defensively in the shape of Starcevich and Lester. We’ll just take the 1st half as Freo have been elite in 2nd half for a few months now. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Hmm ok so. The Docklands management left the roof open and it absolutely pissed down in Melbourne. Ross Lyon is going ape on Twitter (yeah that's right, he's on there. Click that follow button). Not great for our handicap bet or Mason Wood but let's get in early on the under. I liked it anyway...

Essendon/St Kilda

TOTAL u168.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Adelaide/Collingwood

TOTAL u162.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Gold Coast/GWS

Toby Greene Goals

Going again on lé pest. Stringer is out and he has ranked top five for inside 50 targets across the league in the last 10 games. Without Hogan as well, I expect Toby to play deeper in the forward line. Had 7 shots last week when we were on him and most of those were after Stringer left the ground. This is a huge season defining game for the Giants and everything is aligning for the skipper to step up. If there was also a market for him to get suspended in this one, I’d mortgage the house.

Bookmaker: Betr

Units:

1U 2+ $1.95

0.3U 3+ $4.00 

0.15U 4+ $9.50

Toby Bedford AGS

Since being relieved of his tagging role, Bedford has been a reliable goal scorer. He has snagged a sausage in 6 of his last 7. We've got a high total on a sunny day between two attacking teams so looking for more goal scorer value here.

Bookmaker: Betr $1.90

Units: 1

Carlton/Port Adelaide

Ollie Hollands 20+ Disposals

As the Blues looked towards next season and beyond Docherty and probably sad as defensive distributors, they’ve been looking more towards Hollands coming out of the back back half. Cleared 7 of the last 10. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Next Best: Bet365/Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Ashton Moir Goals

Looking for some value in the second tall forward against the Power. Also think the Blues get it done today. Moir has averaged 2.7 shots per game over the last 6. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet 

Units: 

0.7U 2+ $2.35

0.2U 3+ $5.70

0.1U 4+ $14.00

0.02 5+ $46.00

Carlton -12.5 Handicap

Putting self-hatred in the Google calendar for 4:30pm today as I’m backing the Blues. Prime let down spot for the Power as they’re probably looking forward to the Boak/Hinkley send off game next week. The Blues have been in all their games lately and will be looking to finished the season 2-0 after a tumultuous year. Walsh is their most important player and has historically come back strongly in the game after his injuries. 

Bookmaker: Dabble $1.90

Units: 1

Harry Rowston 15+/20+ Disposals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

1U 15+ $1.62

0.25U 20+ $4.33

Melbourne/Hawthorn

Jai Newcombe 25+ (o23.5)

Backing him against after cashing last week. Has had a lot of excuses over the las t month and it’s very unlikely he gets attention tonight.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1

Christian Salem u23.5 Disposals

8/21 on this line for the season. Steven May comes back into the team and will impact his kick out numbers. On top of that we have a potentially greasy and cold night at the G. The Hawks are getting back to their best have been very restrictive to uncontested ball and a lot of that has been in the back half.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.00

Units: 0.9

Christian Petracca u24.5 Disposals

Rinse and repeat from last week. The majority forward role has stuck and even if it doesn't tonight the match up inside is tough. Hasn't covered this one in his last four games since switching roles and tonight isn't going to be any easier than those games. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 1

Collingwood +7.5 (First Half)

This is a huge game for the Pies and after a decent break to rest the old bodies I expect them to come out hard in the first half. They might not pile on the goals but they'll be hard in the contest and will keep it close and probably low scoring.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Wayne Milera 20+ (19+ TAB)

The Wayne has finally been hitting some form after years of investment from the Crows. Without Laird there's heaps of cheap ball to be had in defensive half. I'm expecting Collingwood to park numbers behind the ball to prevent Thilthy from dominating the forward arc.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.00 (19+)

Next Best: Sportsbet $2.21

Units: 0.9

North Melbourne/Richmond

TOTAL u166.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1

Sydney/Geelong

TOTAL o172.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

North Melbourne/Richmond (cont.)

Colby McKercher o30.5

Not over that we’ll take over lines this high but I can’t imagine a better spot for the little scab to bin it up. The Tigers seem set on the game style of parking the bus behind the ball. McKercher still managed 27 last week in the toughest matchup the halfbacks. Bellerive is a big ground with plenty of space and it looks like the rain will stay away. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1

Finn O’Sullivan o16.5

Another one who has locked up a role behind the ball who they want to get into the game is last year's first draft pick off the board FOS. Has been around this mark for the last month and far tougher matchups.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1.05

Western Bulldogs/West Coast

Tim English Goals

Averaging 2 shots at goal per game in his last 6 and has kicked 13 goals in his last 15 games. Timmy will definitely get his chances today. Possibly later in the game when they’re ahead and prioritise resting players forward. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Sportsbet 

Next Best: Betr $1.97 (AGS)

Units:

0.9U AGS $2.05 (Pointsbet)

0.3U 2+ $5.60 (Sportsbet)

0.1U 3+ $19 (Sportsbet)

Riley Garcia AGS

Some of the fringe Dogs will get their chance to shine today as the sub and roles will be used to rest at times with percentage not a factor for the Dogs as they look to next week. There’s a battle going on in the Dogs bottom 6 and some of the scrappers will be highly incentivised to put the foot down today. Garcia has had a ping in each of his last 4 games. The last one sub affected. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.40

Units: 0.65

Mark Blicavs u17.5

Had some easy matchups, one of them with Stanley being subbed. Now should back to a wing role.

Bookmaker: Sportbet $2.01

Units: 0.9

Errol Gulden u28.5

Gulden is the perfect mark for Mullin. Mullin is an aerobic beast and can go everywhere with Errol who torched the Lions in transition last week and was the difference. To tag Errol, Mullin doesn’t have to be at centre bounce so the Cats can focus on a more offensive look with Miers. I might be wrong, but it could also be Mark O’Connor. Either way, I think they’ll have a plan.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.83

Units: 1.05