Round 22 (2025)

Collingwood/Hawthorn

Highest Scoring Half (First)

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.10

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.95

Units: 0.85

Jai Newcombe o21.5

Picking off a low line for Jai. Has had plenty of excuses over the last month. Couldn't get near it matched up against Drew in the slop down in Tassie. After that was matched up on Hewett and then subbed in the third quarter with management. Last week Berry and Peatling rotated on him in a generally very low disposal night game at Adelaide Oval. This is a huge game for the Hawks and Newc will be throwing everything at it against the easiest matchup for inside mids over the last 6 weeks. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.83 (22+ market)

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.80/Sportsbet $1.77

Units: 1.1

Richmond +22.5 (vs. St Kilda)

The Tigers were embarrassed last week and welcome back a trio of experienced players to bolster a tiring young side. The Saints don't play often on the G and a few of these kids haven't even played on the ground before. At the moment, they're pretty much a Docklands specialist team. Still think the Saints get it done but this is a big line for 2 clubs that aren't that far apart. 

Bookmaker: Betr $1.90

Units: 1

Geelong/Essendon

Gryan Miers o25.5 Disposals 

Should have a field day in his new midfield role against a ragtag bunch of young bombers who will run out of puff by the second quarter.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Jack Martin Goals

Highly likely to play a full game today after being sub last week. The Cats will prefer to use the sub to rest some of their older players. He’ll benefit from Danger being rested. It should all be about Jezza tonight (at prohibitive odds) but Martin is fighting for a spot in a potential premiership team, so have plenty of incentive himself.

Bookmaker: TAB

Units:

1U 2+ $1.90

0.3U 3+ $3.80

Hunter Clark o21.5

Match up meets opportunity here as Clark has been running amok behind the ball in his new halfback role. Played there in his Junior years so there's no stranger to the role and should be able to perform consistently.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Jack Macrae u25.5

Averaging 66% TOG in the last 3 including an extended benching in the comeback against the Demons. A nice matchup for him has him boosted at the books but hasn’t cleared this one in the last 4 games. The Saints are looking towards youth in the midfield and Jack Steele won't be the one who is deprioritised in his 200th game. Potential red vest candidate.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Jack Steele o21.5

Speaking of… Jack was last week after Ross acknowledged that he probably shouldn't have played the week prior. It is 200 this week and has been given a light load in the lead up so should be fresh and ready against one of the easier midfield match ups on a sunny day in Melbourne.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 1.05

Highest Scoring Half (Second)

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Tom Lynch Goals

Lynch has spoken about his disappointment his actions and how he let the team down after being suspended for 5 weeks. We like the Tiges today and it's great conditions for marking and high scoring in Melbourne. He should be fresh and fit after over a month on the sidelines. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet 

Units: 

1U 2+ $1.96

0.25 3+ $4.10

0.1U 4+ $10.00

0.05U 5+ $26.00

Brisbane/Sydney

Dayne Zorko u23.5

Everything is going against Zorko here. There is a potential tag from either James Jordan or Braeden Campbell. We could have some slippery conditions making it more difficult during the outside. He's also carrying a lisfranc injury which has seen his output fall in the last month. If the Lions get up by a significant margin, he is a red vest candidate.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Tim Taranto u25.5

Piling the bets here! Windy a chance to tag. Coming back from a calf so always a sub risk. Saints aside from the tag are super restrictive.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87 

Units: 1

Darcy Wilson 20+

Bookmaker: Bet365 $3.35

Units: 0.4

Carlton/Gold Coast

Gold Coast -13.5 (Second Half Line)

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.95

Units: 1

Port Adelaide/Fremantle

Fremantle -11.5 (Second Half Line)

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

GWS/North Melbourne

Finn Callaghan o27.5

His primary role is to get back to help across the halfback line and then work the ball around in transition and that'll be favourable on a huge ground. As an extremely experienced North lineup going out there today and they’ll be running out of legs early.

Bookmaker: Dabble $1.75

Units: 1.1

Stephen Coniglio o18.5 Disposals

A career bottom out number for Cogs. Has had a bit of a rough time over the last few years with multiple injuries but as strung together three full games in a row now, the last two of which against very difficult midfield matchups. There's lots of space out there today and he should get plenty of easy ball with which he can hack forward and turn over. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95

Units: 0.95

Harry Sheezel o26.5 Disposals

Has the armband today and will lead from his midfield role. Bins it up like a mad man in the guts and it’ll be a high disposal game on the big Manuka ground. Harry’s line here has been dropped by playing most of the season in a high half forward role. The Giants have dropped the tag and their midfield looks far better for it so don’t expect to see Bedford. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Toby Greene Goals

Lots of incentive for the Giants to get a big win today and an extra bit of motivation for Toby after letting the team down by getting suspended. She's plenty more targets inside 50 without Jesse Hogan and hopefully he can convert more than one from five like we saw from brick face Tom Lynch.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

0.7U 3+ $2.35

0.35 4+ $4.60

0.1 5+ $10.50

Melbourne/Western Bulldogs

Christian Petracca u24.5 Disposals

Doesn't make a huge amount of sense to me this one. Has been playing forward while the days give a few of the younger guys to go in the midfield to see what they have. Even if Troy Chaplin flips that one and gives Tracc more time in the midfield, he's up against an extremely difficult midfield match up with high motivation.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Bailey Dale o25.5 Disposals

Horror run for Dale lately getting tagged by all and sundry. Konstanty (NM) into Keays/ANB (ADE) then Guelfi (ESS) and GWS who every HB struggles against. The G should create plenty of space and new coaches are far more likely to release the shackles and pay much attention to opposition players. 

Bookmaker:  Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

WB -6.5 (Q4 handicap)

The best Q4 team in the league against the team with a hyper percentage of tiring kids. The Dogs have plenty even incentive here to put the foot down. I’m expecting to see some grit early from the Dees who’ll be getting behind Goody but that can’t last against the quality of the Dogs. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

West Coast/Adelaide

Adelaide Second Half TEAM Total o59.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Next Best: TAB $1.90 (o60.5)

Units: 1.05

Dan Curtin AGS

Curtin will be encourage to push forward more than usual I think today with WCE lack of defensive height. When he does, he's pretty much unstoppable as no wing man in the comp has his size.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.00

Next Best: GoldBet $1.96

Units: 0.9