Round 20 (2023) B&F

RESULTS

TOTAL POINTS

GC/BL o163.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 5

BL (Team Points) o92.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 5

DISPOSALS

Darcy Moore (o19.5)

Moore has taken over the kick-in duties since Nick Daicos’s move to the middle full-time in Round 15. He’s averaged 19.2 in that time and tonight will Harry McKay will have more freedom to zone off TDK. Went coco bananas against the Blues earlier in the year with 25 touches and 12 marks. In the last 3 weeks we’ve seen he biggest concession to position trend of the year with the Blues conceding

Bookmaker: TAB $2.30 (Sportsbet $2.30)

Units: 0.7U

Andrew Brayshaw (u28.5)

The Dockers are in free fall and good ol Andy keeps on battling but his gut running to space game isn’t going to get him very far in a spanking at Kardinia Park. GEE go -12% uncontested at KP and -19% to midfielders.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Jordan Dawson (u27.5)

We’re forecasting a heavily contested finals-like match tonight in the showdown. Dawson should see attention at stages from Willem Drew. Night matches at Adelaide Oval have the lowest total possessions and lowest uncontested accumulation of any scenario in the league. Dawson also got a bit banged up last week and struggled against the Dees after spending some time getting attention on the side lines.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Finn Callaghan (u20.5)

Callaghan is one of the highest uncontested % players in the competition with 79% of his possessions coming in that way. He’s been a bit banged up and missed the ADE game 2 weeks ago. The WB have given up -13% to MIDS in the last 5 weeks and Eureka stadium is a -7% uncontested matchup to the visiting team. Finn is a second year player playing away which is a -8% matchup on average.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Stephen Coniglio (u29.5)

Working off the same stats as Callaghan here with a high number for Cogs.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1.2

Jason Horne Francis (u18.5)

Playing the numbers here. Hasn’t gone over this number since May and there’s not easy ball in a showdown.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1

Dom Sheed (o24.5)

This season NM are giving away an enormous +16% on uncontested possession away from home and over the course of the season have conceded +12% to mids. Dom is an absolutely bin of a chip hunting seagull who just wanders around Perth stadium looking for pointless touches which is perfect in this one. He'll get more opportunity with Shuey out of the side as well. The senior Eagles should be giving this one everything as it's their last winnable one of the season (*decade).

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/TAB $1.90

Units: 1

GOALSCORERS

Dan McStay

Has kicked 2 goals in consecutive weeks since returning from an injury. Is the No.1 target inside F50 for the Pies and as such i think these odds are pretty attractive. The weather looks to be clearing from any rain later this evening, so it should be a mostly dry game which should help our man do his thing.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units:

1U 2+ $2.8

0.5U 3+ $7.5

Charlie Cameron

Has had a bit of an up and down season, going goalless in 4 games with bags of 6 and 7 in between. GC have some solid key backs to defend the tall aerial threats, however they look to be lacking some pace down back, which Charlie might be able to exploit. GC are his favourite matchup by far, kicking 35 goals in 14 games against them. Conditions look perfect for footy, so we should see a free-flowing, high-scoring game where hopefuly our man can get on the end of a few. Bookmaker: Topsport

Units:

1U 3+ $2.73 0.35U 4+ $5.6 0.15U 5+ $14

Jack Darling

Has looked a bit cooked at times this year, but gets the best opportunity at home against North. If Larkey gets off the chain than Oscar Allen could potentially be asked to float down back to give some support like last week. However whatever happens here Jack will be fwd all game. The conditions look good for him and i think WCE can give him enough opportunities to be able to kick a few goals.

Bookmaker: Topsport

Units: 1U 2+ $2

0.4U 3+ $4.1