Round 2 (2025)

CAR/HAW

HAW/CARL u164.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

Sam Walsh u27.5 Disposals

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Oliver Hollands u19.5 Disposals

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.84

Units: 1.1

WB/COLL

Ed Richards o25.5

With Bont and Treloar missing Ed is seeing a lot more opportinity as a link up player. The Pies are still lacking pace and defensive pressure in their midfield group and have continued their high mid concession numbers to start the year. Ed has performed well so far in his few games at the G an we expect that to continue.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.82

Units: 1.1

PA/RICH

Port -39.5 (vs. RICH)

We don’t have a lot of faith in the Power long term but this looks like a great bounce-back spot for them after an embarrassing Round 1. They’ve got an elite record at home against bottom 8 opposition and we’ll be seeing a lot of Tigers players who are playing their first game ever on the road. Covering road trips has a high correlation to experience. Something of which the Tigers are severely lacking. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Jase Burgoyne 20+

Without Houston and Finlayson there’s a real opportunity here for Burgoyne to fill the distributor role alongside Farrell. He filled this role nicely at the end of 2024 averaging 20 a game and we’re expecting some natural improvement. Younger players almost always go better at home. There’ll also be plenty of uncontested ball out there on a sunny Adelaide day against a young team.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Sam Powell-Pepper 2+

SPP is playing deep fwd at the moment and in a game where we expect the Power to win easily, there’s value in this price. Has cleared this at a rate of 50% in his last 10 games, the majority of which was against far easier opposition.

Bookmaker: Topsport $3.10

Units: 0.5

Connor Rozee MOST Disposals

Set to go bonkers today and plenty of lays in that group.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $3.25

Units: 0.4

ESS/ADE

Riley Thilthorpe 

Ya just gotta keep hitting Thilthy at this price. Has covered 2 goals in 7 of his last 8 and will be up against the likes of Zac Reid here.

Bookmaker: TAB/Pointsbet 

Units:

1U 2+ $1.90 TAB

0.4U 3+ $4.00 Pointsbet

Josh Rachele 2+

We’re looking at a shoot out today so taking some value where we can find it. Rachele looked very dangerous last week and strangely got a hard ball. Must’ve been the first of his career. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $2.80

Units: 0.5

Zac Merrett AGS

Running this one back from last week. Spent the majority of the second half forward which was a trend we saw towards the end of 2024. Has goaled in 7 of his last 11.

Bookmaker: Topsport $2.33

Units: 0.7

StK/GEE

Lawson Humphries 20+

With Bailey Smith out we should see some more Tom Stewart into the midfield. This might have been the move anyway with Mitch Owens typically locking him down in this matchup when he plays back. Either way this leave Humphries as the primary distributor against a classically leaky Saints team in the back half.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.65

Units: 1.3

Rowan Marshall 20+

Eased into it last week with a back concern but will be back to full-time ruck duties this week. SDK is top 3 on terms of easy matchups for opposing rucks so even not quite at 100% we expect Marshall to cover this. Covered 6/9 post bye on this number last year and had 28 vs. the Cats last time out.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

BL/WC

Will Ashcroft 25+

Ashcroft is ready to go after a full pre-season. The Eagles are an easy beat around the ball at the moment and their best pressure mid from last week, Jack Graham will miss. Ashcroft his a few touches better at home and should rack em up today.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Liam Duggan u21.5

Duggan carried an ankle concern into last week and re-injured it. He has moved from him 2024 role getting cheap kicks in the Adam Simpson chippy-chippy game style and into the guts. The Eagles will get demolished in there toady and the Lions away is one of the hardest match-ups in the league. Has not proven a ball winning ability as a mid across his career.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Will Ashcroft MOST Disposals

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $2.60

Units: 0.5