Round 2 (2023) B&F

RESULTS

HANDICAPS

Fremantle (-29.5)

Freo will be back at home and fuming after their timid 2nd half against the Saints. Whilst North are primed for a let down spot as a young team goes on the long road trip to the west. The Roos have lost their last 4 encounters to the Dockers by 78, 51, 64 and 82 points and we expect this to be no different.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 2

Sydney 2ND HALF vs. Hawthorn (-20.5)

We’re focussing on the second half this week not only due to the relevant performances from last week but also from last year. For at least 12 months the Swans have been putting teams away in the second halves and the Hawks have been fading. We also rate the Hawks lower than the market here so there plenty of value.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 2

TOTAL POINTS

COLL vs. PA over 165.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

ADE vs. RICH over 173.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

ESS vs. GC over 169.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

WC vs. GWS over 164.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 2

SYD vs. HAW over 165.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

SYD TEAM TOTAL POINTS (vs. HAW) over 102.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

GOAL SCORERS

Mitch Georgiades

Mitch had 6 shots on goal last week for 1.3, taking 4 marks I50. He has taken 90 marks I50 over the last 2 seasons in 41 games, suggesting that he is a solid target but also able to find space with a bit of speed. We think losing Howe might take the Pies a couple weeks to adjust the backline and with the way they play it can create space for opposition forwards at times, particularly if they have some speed. Moore will almost certainly go to Marshall and Frampton should come in to take on Dixon, this should somewhat give Georgiades a favourable matchup.

All he needs to do is kick straight and at some point he will get it all right, he has perfect goal kicking technique so he should be doing better. A day game in perfect conditions where we also like the overs, this is another one that ticks all the boxes and only a stroke of bad luck/poor conversion will see this lose.

Bookmaker: PointsBet

1U 2+ $4.50

0.3U 3+ $14

0.15U 4+ $51

Tom Lynch

3.3 last week in a really low scoring game. We've seen for a while now that the Crows are vulnerable to big forwards. Lynch could go huge here and again we like the overs which provides more value to our goal scorer bets.

Bookmaker: Bet365

2U 3+ $2.20

1U 4+ $4.25

0.3U 5+ $9

0.15U 6+ $20

Ollie Henry

Exact kind of forward that Carlton struggle with. Should have had 3 last week, is a gun forward and only in the team to kick goals.

Bookmaker: Bet365

1U 2+ $2.75

0.5U 3+ $7.00

DISPOSALS

Daniel Rich (o24.5)

Rich has a great history against the Dees going 30, 33, 27 and 26 in his last 4. Melbourne were a fantastic matchup for designated kickers last year and that continued last week. With Kiddy Coleman out, Rich will also take on more of the responsibilities coming out of the back half.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.05

Units: 1

Nick Daicos (u27.5)

Looking at a top end line for Daicos. In his 26 game career has gone under this in 20 games. Daicos is one of, if not the most damaging players for the Pies and can accumulate with ease and collect plenty of uncontested footy. Port might not directly put a tag into him but their willingness to limit uncontested footy is not understated being the #1 most restrictive team in that department in round 1 but also 2022.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.92

Units: 1

Taylor Adams (u20.5)

This may look a low line on first glance but we're taking the unders on Adams here. His mid role has been diminished in the pre season and we also saw that last week with only 35% CBAs. Port are already a tough side to rack them up against and we think Adams will struggle again today.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.92

Units: 1

Errol Gulden (25+/30+)

Getting on some early season odds while they’re still good on Errol. The pre-season darling gets the perfect matchup at home against the leagues most inexperienced midfield. With Callum Mills still nursing a hand injury and playing wing, Gulden has been thrown into the middle and should run riot against the Hawks today.

Bookmaker: TopSport

Units: 0.75 (25+ @ $2.70) 0.25 (30+ @ $6.50)

Dylan Moore (u21.5)

Going again on Moore after last week. He’s parked inside 50 again this week in a game where we forecast the Hawks to get flogged by the Swans. In a game where the mids will struggle to get their hands on it, it’s hard to see a high half-forward getting 22 touches.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Karl Amon (u22.5)

Karl’s line is still boosted from having played for the easiest teams to accumulate wing possession in the league in Port. Like we said last week in our win, he’s moved to the hardest team to play wing for in the Hawks. Funnily enough this week, he’s up against the team that has been the hardest for wings to accumulate in the last 2 years in the Swans. Your scabbing days are over Krazy Karl.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.90

Units: 1