Round 19 (2025)

Essendon/Greater Western Sydney 

GWS -10.5 Q4

Strong trend of youth fading late in the season and GWS need % as the seasons end near with half the league on 44 points.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Jake Stringer Goals

Even with Hogan in the team, Stringer attracts top 10 inside 50 target numbers and will be keen to torch his old side.

Bookmaker: Betr/Pointsbet

Units: 

0.6U 3+ $2.35

0.3U 4+ $4.75

Lachie Whitfield o28.5 

His recent history is littered with decent excuses from being subbed to playing fwd. He’s back to his best position and has also been going well without high kick out numbers. The Dons leak huge numbers to opposition defenders and will probably continue keeping a +1 behind the ball with things looking pretty dire. Expect him to rack em up in the second half with the baby Bombers needing to be carried to the car. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1.1

Brisbane/Western Bulldogs

Marcus Bontempelli u24.5

Bont is coming off a huge game but into a tough matchup in the Lions. We’ve got an other of weather around and the Lions might well go to their plan of Dunkley with him and stoppages and Berry off the wing to him around the ground. This tactic resulted in an 18 touch game earlier in the year. Without it in these conditions, it’s still gonna be tough.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.95

Units: 0.95

First Half u85.5 Total Points

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87 (under 'Half Markets')

Units: 1

Lachie Bramble u18.5

Let down spot for Bramble. Has benefitted from Dale being tagged lately and the weather is gonna make it tough.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.78

Units: 1.1

Will Ashcroft MOST Disposals

Speculative play on what should be a low touch game. In wet games this year, he’s dominated averaging 32 touches in 4 games. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $5.50

Hawthorn/Port Adelaide 

Port Adelaide u60.5

Have to find a way to back Hawthorn here. Port have lost a number of key players and off a soft win come up against the Hawks who have won their last nine at York Park. The weather looks borderline armageddon and the Hawks will be desperate to win this one to keep the top four in touch.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Nick Watson MOST Goals

Backing the X+ goal scorer today isn't the way to go with the weather. But we like Nick Watson in these conditions, at this ground and against this opposition so we'll go the speculative ‘most’ play.

Bookmaker: TAB $6.00

Units: 0.15

Sydney/North Melbourne

Sydney -40.5

The Swans are on a roll and vibes are high. North are crawling into the line now with multiple ins and outs each game and a bunch of injury affected players on field. Xerri out is huge here and we expect Sydney to dominate out of the middle and put a big score on the Roos. 

Bookmaker: Dabble $1.90

Units: 1

Hayden McLean Goals

Ladhams is in and he should take the back up ruck duties off McLean. He now has a clean run at parking his arse inside 50 and dominating the Roos. 

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

0.8U 2+ $1.80

0.4U 3+ $3.50

0.3U 4+ $8.00

0.1U 5+ $19.00

Colby McKercher u26.5 Disposals

Primed for a tag. Been huge for the Roos since being switched back and provides all the run and use out of the back half. Campbell or Jordon cold be both used a they’re also valuable forwards.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Ollie Wines u26.5 Disposals

Wines receives a slight role boost coming off the wing here but has been carrying a knee injury and is always a sub risk for a number of reasons. Gets more and more of his ball in transition these days which is in short supply in wet matches. 6/14 on this mark in non sub-affected games.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.84

Units: 1.05

Errol Gulden o26.5 Disposals

Pig out time for Errol. Was burning up the track prior to coming back against the Dogs and having 30. Has had attention since then. On a clear day at on his home deck, he should bin it up like nobody's business.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Luke Parker u23.5 Disposals

Has been in good form over the last few weeks and there may be some subjective form of ‘revenge game’ here but it's gonna be tough for him to get 25 in this match up and with this predicted margin. Only 5/16 on the number over the year.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Kysaiah Pickett o19.5 

High HFs have been tearing the Blues a new one. Kozzie is up for a big one tonight and we might even look at the goals later on. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Kane Farrell 20+ Disposals

We’ve got some severe cross ground breeze and a probably dominant Hawks team kicking a million behinds. Most of the rain has vanished and we might only see some in Q2. The big one is Rozee out of course so all of the distribution will fall to him and Burgoyne. 

Bookmaker: Betr/Pointsbet $2.15

Units: 0.8

First Half Highest Scoring 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.15

Units: 0.8

Kysaiah Pickett Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.4 3+ $3.25

0.15 4+ $7.50

Harley Reid AGS

Bookmaker: Betr $1.85

Units: 1

Geelong/St Kilda

TOTAL o169.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Collingwood/Fremantle

Nick Daicos u27.5 Disposals

Should see more gain management and time forward for Nick as the season goes on. Copped multiple knocks last week to his back and ankle and should see Corey Wagner going with him the whole way today. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Andrew Brayshaw o28.5

Expect to see a whole lot of ball to Brayshaw behind centre today. This is a big game for the dockers to prove they can do it away from home and Brayshaw is a big game player.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

First Half Highest Scoring 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.15

Units: 0.8

Adelaide/Gold Coast

Riley Thilthorpe Goals

Fanstastic matchup for Thilthy. No Collins in what looks like a high scoring game. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

0.7U 3+ $2.25

0.3U 4+ $4.30

0.15U 5+ $9.25