Round 18 (2025)

Carlton/Brisbane

TOTAL o168.5 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.92

Units: 1

Cam Rayner Goals

Since Round 5 has covered this 50% of the time, many of those in easier matchups. The Blues have a particular issue with mobile medium forwards so expect him and Zac Bailey to do well. Has average over 4 shots a game sin the last 6 weeks which is huge. In some great form. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units:

0.55U 2+ $2.75

0.15U 3+ $6.50

0.05U 4+ $26.00

GWS/GEE

TOTAL o173.5  

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Next Best: Dabble

Units: 1

GEE -3.5 Handicap

Write up to come on game day.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Next Best: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Gold Coast/Collingwood

1. Goals

With Brodie Mihocek out, McStay will benefit from more inside 50 targets. Usually he has to play some back up ruck minutes but he should be able to park himself in the goal square all game with Mason Cox fulfilling those duties. Without Sam Collins and Charlie Ballard, the Suns have looked terrible against KPFs. He’ll either get a matchup against Mac Andrew or the second gamer in Oscar Adams. Bodie Uwland is a great matchup for Jamie Elliot so they might look for McStay more. 

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

1U 2+ $1.95

0.3U 3+ $4.00

0.15U 4+ $9.50

0.05 5+ $26.00

Steele Sidebottom o21.5 Disposals

Got some mail that Pendlebury will be sub so I think Sidey switches into the guts and may try and limit the involvement of Anderson. GC a great matchup for oppo mids and a great number on the season for Steele. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Western Bulldogs/Adelaide

Western Bulldogs -8.5

It’s been a big build up to this one of the Dogs. They’ve been poor against top 8 teams and the media has piled on. They have a big home ground advantage and also a schedule advantage with the Crows off a 6-day break. The Crows will feel the loss of Rachele with no real replacement available. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Taylor Walker Goals

Walker has been managed in game a touch to get him up for these big games. Even so, he’s been able to get 14 shots off in the last 4 games and should get the third tall Dogs defender which may end up being Coffield or Williams which is great for him.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Dabble

Units: 

0.7U 2+ $2.25 (PB)

0.3U 3+ $5.25 (Dabble)

0.15U 4+ $16 (PB)

Jordan Dawson u24.5

At around 50% coverage on this line this season and has only just covered int he last few weeks against easy opposition for a midfielder. The Dogs have been incredibly hard this season for slowly inside me like Dawson as they beat you up around the ball. Will have Libba and Richards biting at his ankles all day.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Essendon/Richmond

Sam Durham o23.5

Has come out firing after a layoff. He had a series of injuries and then was suspended, which is by the looks of things been for the best. This looks like a very weak Tigers team, he bullied their last time out and will be needed in the bombers midfield after Caldwell went down.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Toby Nankervis 20+ (19+)

Taking the value here in an easy matchup against poor old Goldie who must be getting pretty tired by now. Nank missed the Dreamtime game due to management so the captain will be fired up to get the Tigers one more win before the season ends. And this one is gettable. 

Bookmaker: TAB $3.00

Units: 0.45U

Jack Ross o16.5

Ross has been given the rest of the season to show us what he's got in the midfield. This is a low number for him against what looks like a pretty soft midfield now without Jye Caldwell. Has hit this mark 11/16 games this season.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.76

Units: 1.15

Isaac Kako Goals

I think we'll get a free flowing game here as the Tigers generally open things up when they feel like they can get a win. This will create some opportunities down the other end. The Tigers are actually not that bad at covering talls with Broad/Miller/Vlastuin being capable. Short snd Banks however, are offensive distributors and shutting down smalls is not their go. It's a breakout alert for Kako.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.4U 2+ $3.20

0.15U 3+ $9.50

0.05U 4+ $30.00

0.01U 5+ $151.00

GWS/Geelong

Tom Stewart u20.5

Stewart has been getting by on some easy match ups lately but the Giants away are the toughest match up in the league. It's only been a few games this season where the cats have been a full strike sound back and this is one go them. Still not 100% recovered from his PCL injury and is always some sub risk.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Lachie Whitfield o28.5 

Beautiful clear day, a milestone and a great match up to defenders in the Cats. Has had sopped games and a few role changes in his recent history so we're getting a playable line here. Whitfield to go big in his 250th.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95 (30+)

Units: 1

Finn Callaghan u27.5

The Cats were absolutely torched on the rebound by Callaghan last time out and will have plans for him this time. Lucky for the Cats they have multiple options in Mark O'Connor, Oisin Mullin and Tom Atkins. MOC and Mullin are both good options and may even tag team due to their running capacity. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Lads $1.88

Units: 1

Port Adelaide/West Coast

Jason Horne-Francis 20+/25+ Disposals

Been a tough run in the last month being subbed and playing the Lions and Swans but this is a big bounce back opportunity. Has gotten back into the CBAs with Bergman shifting more into defence and the Eagles are a rabble in the guts and have also lost Graham today.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.75U 20+ $1.87

0.25U 25+ $4.75

Zak Butters o29.5 Disposals

Gets tagged basically every week but when he doesn’t he really makes the most of it. West Coast won’t have anything for him today and at home, it’s going to be a fill up.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera u26.5

Will get tagged out of existence today by either Campbell or Jordan.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.76

Units: 1.1

Christian Petracca o25.5

Fantastic bounce specs plot for a tracker here after a tough run. North have a midfield it is either banged up or out this week and he should be able to run free on the G. The weather has now disappeared so should be a dry day.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1.1

Harvey Langford o17.5 Disposals

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1