Round 18 (2023) B&F

RESULTS

HANDICAP

Adelaide -17.5

Simply put, the Crows are a young team fully adapted to their home conditions and struggle away. The were destroyed by the Bombers last week but will bounce back this week at home. Not only have the Giants have lost Tom Green but its Rory Sloane’s 250th. He’s the heart and soul of the Crows and they’ll be running though brick walls for him this weekend.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88 (secondary Bet365 -18.5)

Units: 1

TOTAL POINTS

GC/StK u162.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

GEE/ESS o165.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Marcus Bontempelli (u27.5)

Lots of factors are stacking up against the Bont this week. He’s hitting an equal career high line here after dominating in 3 easy matchups in a row. Bont hasn’t cleared this line in his last 3 attempts vs. the Swans.

The Swans this season at the SCG this year have gone -7% on opposition uncontested concession and -7% opposition midfield inhibition. Part of this the defensive attention paid to the best opposition mids by Rowbottom who will stay close to the Bont.

This is the Swans last ditch attempt to stay in the running for the finals and they won’t want to get beaten by what they know.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95 (secondary SportsBet $1.89)

Units: 1

Andrew Brayshaw (o28.5)

Has turned a corner since some early season struggles with injuries and form and has now cleared this in each of his last 10 games. The Pies have consistently given up strong numbers against midfielders that are able to find the ball consistently on the outside, see Bont (29), Anderson (35), Dawson (35) in the last three weeks. With Serong out of the side today, he needs to lift to get his side into the game.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Rory Laird (o29.5)

Not only are GWS giving up the most contested possessions in the comp, they are also the best midfield match up in the comp, this shapes up as the ideal contest for Laird to have a day out. Laird started 2023 slow by his standards averaging 27.6 between rounds 1-9 and going over in 2/9, but has now turned a corner averaging 29 from rounds 10-17 going over in 4/7. Last year he went over this in 17/20 games so given a nice positive match up in a dewy night time game, a strong showing is expected from Adelaides #1 contested player.

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.90

Units: 1

Ben Hobbs (u22.5)

Hobbs ticks a lot of boxes today to take his unders. He’s hit a career high line at a time when he runs into the toughest matchup for his postion over the last 3 years at the Cattery where mids this year are going at -13% on their average. We’re also getting potentially slippery conditions which will inhibit his 63% uncontested game. A little cherry is that 1st/2nd years players playing away are -9% on possessions over the last 3 seasons.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Stephen Coniglio (u28.5)

Cogs has been on a strong recent run which gives us the line we want against the Crows at AO. Adelaide at AO are running at -13% uncontested possession and -10% to the midfield. Tom Green being out will mean more attention can go to Cogs. There are also plenty of factors that will encourage a strong game from the Crows. It’s Sloane’s 250th and they should come out breathing fire after a pathetic effort last week against Essendon.

Bookmaker: Sportbet $1.89

Units: 1

Finn Callaghan (u21.5)

Similar to Cogs above but Callaghan’s game is almost purely uncontested which at Adelaide Oval is poison. We’ll also see a very cold night and tough conditions on the ground for clean ball movement.

Bookmaker: Sportbet $1.89

Units: 2

Tim Kelly (o27.5)

Plays better at home. Bounce back spot for him. Head clash on the weekend for only 75% TOG, finished with 26. Week prior tagged by Rowbottom for 27 in the 170 point loss. Week prior had Keays following him for 27 in a 120 point loss. 29 in round 8. Bit of a bounceback spot after 4 quietish games against a great midfield match up. Loves playing Richmond with a career average of 29.5 which includes a covid-football game.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

GOAL SCORERS

Dan McStay

Coming in for his first game since R5, while it can be a risk taking a player returning from injury, Dan has only been out with a finger issue, meaning that since then he has still been able to do a full running program and has maintained a high level of fitness. With Mihocek out of the team and Cox + Frampton to take the ruck duties, McStay will be parked forward as the main target. 0-3MM rain forecast is a slight concern but is nothing too dramatic and with Freo missing Cox + Young from their back 6 it makes these odds too good to pass up.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

1U 2+ $3.20

0.5U 3+ $9.50

0.25U 4+ $35

Charlie Curnow

Aliir is almost certain to go to McKay to match his height, which leaves one of Bergman, Jonas or Jones to match up on Curnow. In any situation i think its a huge advantage to Charlie and one that the Carlton coaching staff should really be trying to exploit today. Port have been good all year in most areas but the one chink in their armor is they don't have a 2nd big KPD, which against Carlton can cause some issues.

Bookmaker: TAB

Units:

1U 3+ $1.95

0.5U 4+ $3.1

0.25U 5+ $5.5

Jed McEntee

Bit of a play on numbers with this, has goaled in 9/13 games this year playing as a small forward. Port have lost a first choice small in Rioli, so a little more onus is on McEntee along with DBJ & Powell-Pepper. Doesn't get a lot of opportunities but has been taking them when he does get them infront of the sticks

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.85

Units: 1 (Anytime Goal Scorer)