Round 17 (2025)

North Melbourne/Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs Second Half Line -24.5

The Roos are in a very tough spot here. Off a five day break with a trip to Perth and Launceston in the last month. They've also lost over 1000 games of experience at the selection table. The Dogs have also played two games in 11 days but have far more experience in their legs and depth at the selection table. They’re 8-0 against the bottom 8 this season and 8-0 in their last eight games against the Kangaroos. Expecting this one to get ugly late.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Aaron Naughton Goals

Has benefitted greatly from the return of Sam Darcy. Getting the second defender, he’s been peppering the goals with 3.5 shots a game in the last 6 weeks. North defenders fall away quickly after the over performing Toby Pink. The Roos will get dominated in the midfield and the inside 50 will be overwhelming. Has hit the 3 goals mark 7/15 games this season. 

Bookmaker: Betr

Next Best: Bet365

Units: 

0.8U 3+ $2.45

0.4U 4+ $5.00

0.2U 5+ $11

0.1U 6+ $30

Riley Garcia 16+ Disposals (PYOD)

Been binning it up like a mad man in the VFL. Hit this at 80% last season and in a probable blowout there'll be plenty of chances to get uncontested ball.

Sportsbet: $1.87

Units: 1

Tom Liberatore AGS

Classic game for a milestone goal. It's Libba's 250th and the Dogs should blow out the Roos. They all love Libba and a move forward late to snag one is probable. Is actually a great set shot for an inside mid.

Sportsbet: $2.85

Units: 0.5

West Coast/GWS

West Coast +23.5

West Coast have shown steady improvement over the last 4 to 6 weeks. They’ve been outperforming the Giants in almost every contest metric but have just been failing to put it on the score-board. The Giants on the other hand of pretty much nailed every opportunity in front of goal having a wild +20.8 on xScore over the last 5 weeks and having actually lost their last 3 games instead of won them on that measure. The Giants have also lost enough experience now (this week with Whitfield and Hogan) that they actually have the same average age as the Eagles. You never know what you're going to get with the Giants off a bye either, especially with a young team on the road, having gone 1-2 in the past. On the more vibez end, maybe we’ll get an emotional boost from Dom Sheed’s retirement. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Next Best: Pointsbet/Sportsbet (+22.5)

Units: 1

Collingwood/Carlton

Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals

These markets were framed during the week under the assumption that there would be a serious risk of a tag coming from Alex Cincotta. However, he’s been dropped. The 30+ mark against any opposition where there is no tag risk as an easy over for Naicos, and one we've hit a few times already this season. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87/Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

West Coast/GWS (cont.)

TOTAL o165.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Bet365 $1.91 

Units: 1

Elijah Hewett AGS

Rolling along with the over and WCE line value. An elite kick for goal and has covered in his last 5 home games and has averaged 1.85 shots there. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $2.30

Next Best: TAB $2.15

Units: 0.75

Harley Reid AGS

Similar reasoning to Hewett. Excellent home record and has had 1.7 shots per game at home this year. 

Bookmaker: Betr $2.00

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.99

Units: 1

Carlton/Collingwood (cont.)

Patrick Lipinksi AGS

In a new HHF role and is getting loads of shots.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95

Next Best: Betr $1.70

Units: 1

COLL -6.5 Q3 Line

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 0.5

Orazio Fantasia AGS

Looked like maybe the only Blues player that was on last week. Averaging 3 shots a game since his return.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.95

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Essendon/Gold Coast

Peter Wright Goals

Gold Coast have struggled with key forwards in recent weeks. That’s mostly to do with the Mac Andrew matchup but now that Sam Collins is out, they’ll be forced to play a debutant. Oscar Adams will most likely have to sit as the deepest forward on 2MP who is at his pet ground and will see plenty of chances as the Bombers use their new fast ball movement method. Also like the Bombers to put up a fight today. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Betr 

Next Best: Sportsbet

Units:

0.85U 2+ $1.83 (Betr)

0.35U 3+ $3.60 (Betr)

0.2U 4+ $9.00 (Pointsbet)

0.1U 5+ $26.00 (Pointsbet) 

Nate Caddy 2+ Goals

Mac Andrew looks so diabolical at the moment, I just have to back against him Caddy. Caddy like a lot of young players prefers playing at home and averages 3.2 shots per game at Docklands.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $2.30

Next Best: Sportsbet

Units: 0.7U

Ben King 3+ Goals

King has elevated odds from an abnormal amount of wet games the Suns have been involved in. He’ll get Laverde or Ridley which is bad news for the Dons.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Zac Merrett 30+ Disposals

Great bounce back spot here fresh off a bye. Has been played out of the midfield and also tagged over the last month creating this price. The Suns rarely tag and give up +5% to opposition mids. The captain will be raring to go after 4 Ls for the Bombers back at a ground where he dominates. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.60 (29+)

Next Best: Bet365 $3.00

Units: 0.75

Geelong/Richmond

Geelong Q4 -15.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.98

Next Best: TAB $1.90

Units: 0.9

Ollie Dempsey 16+ Disposals

Has been down on form but there’s nothing like being on the wing in a blowout against the Tigers at home to get your form back. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Lawson Humphries 18+ Disposals

Another guy looking for a bounce back on a sunny day in an incredible match up against the Tigers who love giving our big numbers to halfbacks, especially in blowouts as they sit behind the ball and let defenders do what they want.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Gryan Miers AGS

Cashed 5 of his last 7 games today and will join in the party at some stage no doubt. Will benefit a touch from the Stengle absence. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.88

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 1

Zak Butters o27.5 Disposals 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Sydney/Fremantle

Jake Lloyd AGS

Back from the buy and into the team with a new forward role. Had 22 touches, 14 marks and kicked 1.2 (with one miss) last week so you could say it was a success. Should see some chances again.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.95

Units: 0.5U

Errol Gulden MOST Disposals (Group A)

Laying a bunch of others in the market here. Gulden shouldn't receive any attention and clearly dealt with the conditions better than most last week. Will only get better in his third game back.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $4.50

Units: 0.25U

Sydney/Fremantle (cont.)

Caleb Serong u27.5

A bit of a no brainer here to take Serong under. The matchup is horrible let alone the risk of copying the James Jordan tag which was back with full force last week against Ed Richards.  Has been the target of the tag most of the time with Brayshaw left alone. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.81

Units: 1.1

Nathan O’Driscoll u18.5 

O’Driscoll is just working his way back into fitness in his third game back from injury. Hasn't recovered his role that saw him have a hot start to the season. His inexperience at only eight games in the last two years counts against him and unique conditions. Happy to take him on in one of the toughest match ups in the league.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Tom Papley Goals

We like the Swannies and Paps is one of our favourites. Much like the Swans he has been all over the place with his shots this season taking 11 and only kicking two through the sticks. The total is also looking a little low so there's value in goals here.

Bookmaker: Multiple

Units: 

0.6U 2+ $2.30 (Sportsbet/Pointsbet)

0.3U 3+ $5.50 (Pointsbet/Bet365)

0.1U 4+ $16.00 (Bet365)

Sydney -7.5 

The Swans rank #2 in group cohesion and have been better than the W/L suggests. The ground presents unique conditions and the Swans should finish stronger.

Bookmaker: Dabble $1.90

Units: 0.5

Adelaide/Melbourne

Jack Viney u20.5 

The idea last week was to deprioritise Viney from the midfield ,however an early injury to Howes prevented this forcing Langford into the back line. With the Demon’s season cooked, I expect to see less Viney in the midfield and more youth. Regardless of role the Crows at Adelaide Oval is a difficult match up.

Bookmaker: Bet365/Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Jake Bowey u21.5 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.91

Units: 1