Round 17 (2023) RS
- AFL Sharp
- Jul 3, 2023
- 2 min read
Updated: Jul 11, 2023
RESULTS
H2H/Handicaps
SYDNEY +5.5 (vs. Richmond)
The Swans have looked a much better side in the last few weeks. They pumped the Eagles and had an xScore differential of 31 points against Geelong. Which is to say, if they kicked at all straight, they'd be favourites in this one. They're bringing back Buddy and more importantly some defensive support in Tom McCartin. The Tigers will be blooding 2 debutants and have struggled badly to stop teams scoring lately. We're backing the Swans keep an unlikely finals dream alive.
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88
Units: 1
TOTAL POINTS
ESS/ADE o170.5
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88
Units: 1
FREO/CARL o159.5
Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91
Units: 1
MELB (vs. StK) TEAM Score u85.5
Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91
Units: 1
DISPOSALS
Dustin Martin (u21.5) **** FREE TIP THURSDAYS*** The Tigers are struggling a bit and have decided to mix up the forward line here. Looks like Dusty will be more of a focus up forward with the Tigers bringing Hopper and Prestia back in over the last few weeks to cover the midfield.
His usual high half forward role has seen him pick up possessions at will lately but we think he plays deeper today.
Traditionally he’s struggled against the Swans with his second worst record being against them not having covered this line in the last 3 attempts. Having missed with illness lately won’t help him either.
The Swans have conceded -8% on uncontested possession since Round 8 and the forecast showers tonight won’t make it any easier.
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88
Units: 1
Hugh McCluggage (o25.5)
Had a slow start to the season but is getting a roll on now. With see plenty of time through the middle with Dunkley out. West Coast have given up the most uncontested possessions in the last 10 weeks which is his thing.
Bookmaker: Topsport/Ladbrokes $1.87
Units: 1
Will Ashcroft (o24.5)
Will dominates at home and will see plenty of opportunity today against the Eagles. WC have a +14% uncontested allowance since Round 5.
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82
Units: 1.1
Conor McKenna (u18.5)
McKenna has had the easiest run in the comp for his position this month and has enjoyed having the kick-out duties. Today that'll depend on the Eagles scoring at all and they are a slightly negative matchup for his position.
Bookmaker: Sportsbet
Units: 1