Round 17 (2023) B&F

RESULTS

H2H/Handicaps

SYDNEY +5.5 (vs. Richmond)

The Swans have looked a much better side in the last few weeks. They pumped the Eagles and had an xScore differential of 31 points against Geelong. Which is to say, if they kicked at all straight, they'd be favourites in this one. They're bringing back Buddy and more importantly some defensive support in Tom McCartin. The Tigers will be blooding 2 debutants and have struggled badly to stop teams scoring lately. We're backing the Swans keep an unlikely finals dream alive.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

TOTAL POINTS

ESS/ADE o170.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

FREO/CARL o159.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

MELB (vs. StK) TEAM Score u85.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Dustin Martin (u21.5) The Tigers are struggling a bit and have decided to mix up the forward line here. Looks like Dusty will be more of a focus up forward with the Tigers bringing Hopper and Prestia back in over the last few weeks to cover the midfield.

His usual high half forward role has seen him pick up possessions at will lately but we think he plays deeper today.

Traditionally he’s struggled against the Swans with his second worst record being against them not having covered this line in the last 3 attempts. Having missed with illness lately won’t help him either.

The Swans have conceded -8% on uncontested possession since Round 8 and the forecast showers tonight won’t make it any easier.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Hugh McCluggage (o25.5)

Had a slow start to the season but is getting a roll on now. With see plenty of time through the middle with Dunkley out. West Coast have given up the most uncontested possessions in the last 10 weeks which is his thing.

Bookmaker: Topsport/Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Will Ashcroft (o24.5)

Will dominates at home and will see plenty of opportunity today against the Eagles. WC have a +14% uncontested allowance since Round 5.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1.1

Conor McKenna (u18.5)

McKenna has had the easiest run in the comp for his position this month and has enjoyed having the kick-out duties. Today that'll depend on the Eagles scoring at all and they are a slightly negative matchup for his position.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 1

GOAL SCORERS

Cooper Sharman

Has had 5 straight games as the sub which is almost unheard of and he had to fill in as a KPD when he came on last week for the injured Battle. This week Cordy comes into the team to fill that role, so Sharman will be lining up as a forward. Even against a stingy Melbourne backline these odds are too good to pass for a pure forward.

Bookmaker: TAB/Topsport

Units:

1U AGS $2.40 TAB

0.5U 2+ $7.50 TS

Jesse Hogan

Without Sicily the Hawks have looked very vulnerable to tall forwards. R12 - Finlayson kicked 5.2 & Marshall 5.1. R15 - King 2.2 & Lukosius 2.2 in tough dewy conditions at Cararra. Last week McKay 2.3 & Curnow 3.2, combining for 9 marks I50 before the latter was subbed out early in Q4.

The weather in Sydney looks absolutely perfect for footy and the Giants will be looking to put the foot down as they fight for a finals spot.

Bookmaker: Topsport

Units:

1U 3+ $3.2

0.5U 4+ $7

Peter Wright

Has gone 2 consecutive weeks goalless, with some less than favourable conditions last week in the rain against Port. As a result we are getting a bit of an inflated price for Peter. He also plays his best footy at Marvel, kicking 54 goals from 24 games under the roof. Expecting this contest to be free flowing, attacking and with plenty of scoring opportunities on offer.

Boomaker: Sportsbet

Units:

0.9U 3+ $2.9

0.5U 4+ $6.25

0.1U 5+ $15