Round 15 (2025)

Geelong/Brisbane 

Tri-Bet - Either team less than 24.5 points (Under ‘Winning Margin Markets’)

This is mostly a bet on the Lions and the weather. They’ve looked good without getting the result over the past few weeks and will be throwing everything at this one. They now hold the record for the highest xScore differential against in a 2 week period. Meanwhile the Cats won’t let the game slide either with it being Danger’s 350th. Either way, I can’t see this one blowing out. Total is steaming down in this one due to the dew incoming.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.98

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 0.9

Lawson Humphries u18.5

Lawson only just covered for us last week but this week is much tougher. He’s lost his kick-outs since the return of Tom Stewart and Mitch Duncan will be in the starting 22 tonight which adds another distributor to compete with. We are likely to see some dew in the second half which will decrease the uncontested numbers.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Carlton/North Melbourne 

Cam Zurhaar Goals

Some value here on Zurhaar who was in some hot form before last weeks garbage game in WA. Covered for 6 games in a row prior to that and we’ve got a cloudless day in Melbourne. Carlton have always struggled with guys like Zurhaar and he’s had 11 shot in his last 3 games against them.

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units:

0.45U 2+ $3.00

0.15U 3+ $8.00

0.05 4+ $28.00

Sam Docherty o21.5 Disposals

The Blues have sorely needed run and decent ball use off half back so they’ve switched Doch back there in the last month. He only failed to cover this line in a tough matchup in the wet against the Eagles. Great conditions to flick the ball around on a big ground. Has always had the ability to gather big numbers and the Blues will be looking for him. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Port Adelaide/Sydney

Isaac Heeney u23.5

Bergman is the perfect catch up here for Heeney. Heeney has struggled to cover this line regardless of any attention and Bergman can has the size to go forward with him if Heeney tries to do that. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

St Kilda/Collingwood

Jack Higgins Goals

Higgins has had a Great season but has been a little off target in the last three weeks having eight shots for only 2 goals. Prior to that though he only missed the 2 goals mark once. Back at his pet deck here in Docklands and the Pies will be without his major nemesis in Maynard. 

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.7U 2+ $2.33

0.3U 3+ $5.50

0.05U 4+ $18.00

Zak Butters MOST DISPOSALS

Playing into a narrative here that Cox is done with the James Jordon mid tag and will prioritise Sheldrick and McInerney. Jordon should go to the Rozee who is the favourite in this market. Gulden shouldn't be 100% yet so Butters is the guy.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $5.00

Units: 0.25

GWS/Gold Coast

TOTAL o166.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Josh Kelly o21.5

Jelly has been working his way back to fitness and has been looking a bit rusty. Day games at home scream Kelly all over the place on a wing. Has been getting the majority of his ball behind centre which is where the Suns leak the most. 19/27 on this mark over the last 2 seasons. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.15

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.96

Units: 0.8

Lachie Whitfield o28.5

Back to his traditional role after a few weeks playing high half forward. The Suns across this season have been top four for conceding possessions to halfback going at +7%. On top of that we have the conditions for a free flowing game with clear skies and Whitfield playing on his home deck. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.15

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.93

Units: 0.8

Sam Flanders AGS

Flanders has been a bit erratic over the last month but has had 10 shots in the last five weeks. We're looking at goal score or a value today with a higher than predicted amount of goals relative to the market. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.83

Units: 1.05

Bailey Humphrey AGS

Humphrey has been prioritised in the midfield and sent as a permanent forward over the last month resulting in 10 shots in 6 weeks for only 2 goals. A natural forward and an elite talent.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.00

Units: 0.9

Western Bulldogs/Richmond

Bailey Dale 30+ Disposals

Just backing in the pig today. Perfect matchup on his favourite ground. Dogs look to him at every opportunity. Tigers +16% to his position. Not much else to say here.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Joel Freijah 20+ Disposals

Over the past few weeks Freijah has seen more time behind the ball and has gone over this mark more than half the time this season. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1.05

Dion Prestia u23.5

The Meatball is aging and the soft tissue is running out of passata rapidly. Officially the most subbed player of all time gives (shoutout Tabs in second) you an extra edge on the under here when he inevitably snaps in half. Has gone under this number 9/15 times the last 2 seasons. The Dogs in the last month have been a nightmare for inside mids going -8% and you wouldn’t expect the Tigers to see much of the ball in general. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Next Best: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1