Round 14 (2025)

Western Bulldogs/St Kilda

Western Bulldogs -20.5

Good bounce back spot here for the Dogs. Embarrassed last week by a hungrier Hawks team, the Dogs need to win this one to get in to the 8. We’ve sent some poor results at the spread for teams like the Saints who have won (luckily as they were flogged on XScore) and then gone into a bye. The Dogs gets back their best fwd weapon in Sam Darcy and I expect the Dogs and their elite contest game to get the better of the Saints much like they did in that matchup 8 weeks ago. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Next Best: Bet365 $1.91 (-21.5)

Units: 1

Adam Treloar u25.5

Just fading this guy weekly atm. Had has a lot of injuries, is bound for low TOG and also a potential sub risk. We've got the benefit of a negative positional matchup as well.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Brisbane/GWS

Brisbane -19.5

Recent results have been deceptive with these 2 teams. The Giants loss to Port was worse than it looked. Port are a team that the Giants should really be beating, let alone almost losing to the Tigers the week before. The Lions destroyed the Crows in every key category except kicking straight. Back at home in a day game where the Lions can play the way they want, they'll have it easy over a Giants side who is going backwards quickly. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Essendon/Geelong

Geelong -29.5 

The Bombers have been losing honourably for a while, but have now reached the tipping point in terms of injuries. They’ll bring in a few more debutants this week after Zak Johnson a fortnight ago and Lual last week. The Bombers never match up against the Cats well and especially poorly on the G which is a ground too big for them to defend adequately.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

GEE/ESS TOTAL o162.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Marcus Bontempelli u23.5

Hard tag coming in for Bont with Windhager going to him. With the Saints getting pumped last time out by the Dogs, it's classic Ross to go super-defensive.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Jackson Macrae u26.5

Coming in off a punctured lung into what will be a furnace. The Dogs contest and post-clearance game will be turned up to 11 and with Macrae not having done much aerobic work in the break, this'll be a tough one to pick up touches.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Hawthorn/Adelaide

Jordan Dawson u23.5

Tonight will not be a high possession game. Dawson will also have to deal with the attention of Nash at stoppages and may deal with it in a similar way to last week by going into the forward line.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.95

Suggested 2-leg: Josh Ward 15+ ($1.05)

Units: 0.95

Cam Rayner Goals

Looking to add some value to our Brisbane line bet. The Giants generally cover talls well so we're looking to the small forwards. Cam has been getting a lot of shots on goal lately but like his little mates are forward a lot of them have been sprayed all over the place. On a still sunny day up North things should be a little easier. 

Bookmaker: TAB 

Units:

0.6U 2+ $2.50

0.25 3+ $6.00

Lawson Humphries 20+* Disposals

Cats defenders have definitely had their excuses with tough match ups over the last 5 weeks. I expect Matt Guelfi to go to Tom Stewart in this one after a successful tagging job on Zorko a few weeks ago. This should leave Humphries free to distribute off half back against the Bombers team are allowing a lot of ball behind centre. 

Bookmaker: TAB (19+ promo) $2.40

Next Best: Ladbrokes $2.80

Next-Next Best: Sportsbet $2.75

Units: 0.65

Jeremy Cameron Goals

Already posted the total over the Cats line so next logical step is to find some GEE goal scorer value. Jezza is the obvious candidate as Laverde we'll match up on him. Even with Dangerfield returning last week Cameron still maintain a deep forward role. Essendon don't have a good match up for Dangerfield but he may be rusty so we'll go with the simple play here.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Next Best: Bet365

Units:

1U 3+ $1.98

0.4U 4+ $3.45

0.15U 5+ $7.00

Geelong Q4 o24.5 Points

We’re already on the Cats and the total over so just a little extra on the this one. Geelong have been running all over teams in the last and the young Bombers will be vulnerable in Q4. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.82

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 0.6

Lachie Whitfield o26.5

Catching a low line on Lachie here. Kingsley said he'll play more back today and Lachie will cover this more often than not back there. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Tristan Xerri u19.5

Xerri has had a bunch of easy matchups lately but FREO are going double ruck and he’ll have a tough time tearing it out of clearance like he usually does. The 19.5 is a key number for him going at 40% over the last few season since becoming #1 ruck.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

NM/FREO Total u166.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Port Adelaide/Melbourne

Melbourne WIN 

The Dees have shown significant improvement over the last 5 or 6 weeks in key areas. Getting close to the Pies deserves more credit. While they’ve never been an accuracy goal kicking team, they’ve been especially errand recently sitting last on XScore +/-. In the last 5 weeks in differentials they’re 3rd in clearance, 1st post-CL contested possession, 2nd in IN50s, 3rd in D50 to score. Their contest game is easily the best in the league right now. Port rank at least bottom 8, if not bottom 4 in all of these areas. What this indicates is that Port will probably lose the midfield battle and then struggle to stop the Dees transition game. It's also hard to see where Port's goals are going to come from. From a motivational POV, the Dees off a tough loss and Port off a win gives MEL an extra boost. Port have also made an eccentric call at the selection table going with dual rucks to stop Gawn. Sweet and Vistenini are both poor though and will just handicap their rotations unless one is sub. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.04

Units: 0.9

TOTAL o153.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Jake Melksham Goals

If we like MEL and the over, it’s time to hit some GS bets. There’s been a Melky renaissance lately. He thrives as the Dees fwd tagger who then punishes the opposition on turnover. Probably the one you can actually rely on in the Dees fwd line to kick straight at the moment. Averaging 3.6 shots at goal over the last 5 weeks. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Next Best: Bet365 (2+ $2.90)

Units: 

0.45U 2+ $3.00

0.15U 3+ $8.00

0.05 4+ $29.00

Kysaiah Pickett Goals

Couldn’t really decide between these 2 so just gonna take both as a bit of a hedge. Let’s just hope the Dees get up by 120 points. Kozzie has been in epic form lately, peppering the sticks with an average 4.8 shots per game. Port classically have no one to deal with quick small and someone like Farrell ends up looking dumb out in space.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Sportsbet

Units: 

0.85U 2+ $2.05 (PB)

0.3U 3+ $4.10 (SB)

0.1U 4+ $11.50 (PB)

0.05 5+ $36.00 (PB)

West Coast/Carlton

Cooper Lord 20+ Disposals

Opportunity meets matchup here. With Sam Walsh out, Lord gets his chance. He should see some CBAs against probably the worst midfield in the comp. If for some reason he’s not preferred, his numbers have been good enough on the outside for him to be a strong chance to cover. Again, there Eagles are one of the worst teams in the league at conceding uncontested ball.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.25

Next Best: TAB (19+) $1.95

Units: 0.75

Oscar Allen 2+ Goals

Without Waterman, he's getting a tonne of targets and will have his opportunities.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.05

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.77

Units: 0.9

Patrick Cripps o25.5

Old boy has been tagged for about a month now and may have run into Brady Hough (who?) today but he’s injured. Without Walsh, it's up to him to carry the load in otherwise shallow midfield. This is a bit of a gift of a number considering the opposition he's up against. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.97 (o26.5)

Units: 1

WC/CAR

TOTAL u167.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1