Round 14 (2024)
- AFL Sharp
- Jun 20, 2024
- 2 min read
Total Points
BL/Stk u162.5
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88
Units: 1
COLL/NM
COLL Q1 o25.5
Bookmaker: TAB $1.90
Units: 2
GWS/PA
Q1 o41.5
Bookmaker: TopSport $1.87
Units: 1
GWS/PA
GWS Q1 o21.5
Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.95
Units: 1
HANDICAPS
BL/STK
BL -27.5
The Saints have gone under the radar is being particularly poor I last six weeks. They come into this one for six a break and three games in 13 days. They have travelled from Perth to Melbourne and back to Brisbane again which is a tough route especially now they are missing Wanganeen-Milera.
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88
Units: 1
RICH/HAW
RICH +16.5
This one has drifted out too far for our liking. In the last 10 meetings between these teams, the Tigers have won 8 of them, lost 1 and drawn 1. Tom Lynch returns and the Hawks have always had their issues with him averaging over 4 goals against since 2021. Dusty has his 300th and as we know always lifts for big games. These big milestone games are often similar in intensity to a final for a team like the Tigers. The Tiges have been slowly getting back their more experience players and should put in a competitive showing tomorrow afternoon.
Bookmaker: TAB $1.90
Units: 1
DISPOSALS
Brad Hill u20.5
This is pretty much just a matchup play. The Lions have recorded -16% uncontested possession at the Gabba this season and this is Hill’s mode of accumulation. Hill is <50% coverage on this number this season and hasn’t consistently covered this number since 2019. The Lions have come out of the bye firing and there won’t be any easy ball again tonight.
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.83
Next Best: N/A
Units: 1.15
Jordan Clark u27.5
Clark has run into some very easy match ups in the last few weeks and the lowest pressure opposition of the season last week in the Demons. The Dogs at Docklands concede -9% to the designated kicker and I have this one more around the 24.5 mark.
Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.80
Units: 1.1
Dan Houston u22.5
Houston had the two toughest match ups in the game heading into the buy in Carlton and North Melbourne and it doesn't get any easier here. Usually we don't like but this line hasn't really moved. Only 20% of players in his position have covered their lines this season at GIANTS Stadium and GWS and limited the designated kicker by a huge -18% making this line more around the 20.5 mark.
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88
Units: 1