Round 13 (2025)

Western Bulldogs/Hawthorn

Aaron Naughton Goals 

Been having a pile of shots with limited success lately. Has averaged 4 shot at goals in his last 6 games. His record against the Hawks is 3.0,2.0,0.2,4.3. The Hawks are on a 6-day break, look pretty horrible and have lost height and experience this week down back. Naughton is too agile for Barrass and too big for Battle. Averages 2.2 over the last 2 seasons at the venue.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.8U 2+ $2.05

0.4U 3+ $4.50

0.2U 4+ $12

0.1U 5+ $40

Lachie Bramble 15+ Disposals 

Lazy, sub affected price here. 7/9 this season and 21/24 last season. Highly unlikely to be subbed as the Dogs have lost 2 defenders in JJ and Duryea. Should take a few kick-outs and is reallly the only other running defensive option after Dale.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.62

Units: 1.4

Jai Newcombe u24.5

Inside mids have been useless against the Dogs dominant clearance and ground ball game. Atkins (16), Caldwell (17), Rowell (20), Wines/Drew (22/16), Green (27), Steele/Macrae (19/16), Dunkley (22), Cripps (21) have all failed to clear their lines in the last few months. Newcombe has struggled since the Gold Coast game in Darwin where he ended the game in a moon boot. He only had 18 last week and what is one of the easier match ups against the Pies. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95

Units: 0.95

James Worpel u23.5

Worpel has a low ceiling only going over 23.5 once this season and is 4/9 on the 22.5 number this season. Did not clear in two games against the Dogs last season. Was out of the midfield for a lot of the last quarter last week and had season low TOG possibly indicating some deprioritisation. See Newcombe writeup for poor matchup details.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Adam Treloar u25.5 

This guy sounds absolutely fried to me. Bevo has said that he will be managed week to week, won't play more than a few games in a row and could possibly start as sub. If he doesn't start as sub here is a risk to get subbed in the second half, if the game is a blowout. Also potentially will be on managed TOG to get him through. Cleared in his last game against Port but that was mostly in the second half when the game was dead. He only had 11 touches in the first half.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Dayne Zorko u26.5 

Last week Ben Keays put the clamps on Nick Blakey and I expect to see a similar role tonight as the Crows try and shut down the Lion’s number one ranking D50 to score game. It helped the Bombers a lot putting Guelfi on him last week. Besides that it's never easy for defenders at Adelaide Oval to gather big possessions especially at night. Let alone in the wet..

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 1

Levi Ashcroft u19.5

Adelaide Oval is one of the narrow of grounds in the league is tough for wings like Ashcroft. Generally Levi folds back behind the play as a defensive wing which will be a tough role tonight. He was subbed last week which may indicate the rookie is feeling some fatigue midway through his first season. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $2.00

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.99

Units: 0.9

Mitch Hinge u18.5

Hinge has suffered this season from a light of ball users in the crows back half. He was the man last season as a designated kicker defence but adding Laird and a healthy Worrell and Milera has made it tough. He covered in free flowing day games against the Pies and Eagles but this one will be a lot harder. Has only taken 7 kick-outs in 5 weeks and his heat maps are further up the ground. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.80

Units: 0.95

Ty Gallop u10.5 Disposals

Debut key forward in wet conditions. Huge sub risk and a low VFL ceiling.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

MOST Goals

Izak Rankine

Not a game where he should be playing major midfield minutes. Will be needed for ground balls inside fwd 50. Just the guy who is clean enough on a night like tonight. Might only need 3.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $17

Units: 0.075

Richmond/Sydney

MOST DISPOSALS (Group B) - Nick Blakey

Due to the uncertainty with the weather the value here is not in taking the over but the relative value against the group. The Swans have lost their primary distributor in Matt Roberts for this one and come up against the easiest team in the league for halfbacks. Blakey is coming off a poor game where he was tagged by Ben Keays have been challenged to respond. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $5.10

Units: 0.2

Geelong/Gold Coast

Sam Clohesy u17.5

Clohesy as a pure wing relies a lot on uncontested possession. Not only is that difficult to come across in wet games but also wings have a tough time of it on the narrow dimensions of Kardinia Park. If you were are backing him to get 19 touches over the last 2 seasons you would have only won 36% of the time.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.81

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.79

Units: 1.1

GWS/Port Adelaide

Ryan Burton u18.5 

It’s been a battle for halfback against the Giants all season. Only 29% of half backs have cleared their lines and it will be tougher for Burton now with Kane Farrell back in the team stealing his kick outs which have accounted for 11 of his touches. Rozee is still spending a lot of time behind the ball being the distributor. It's Canberra so it'll be freezing. Colder weather means slower ball movement and less uncontested stuff.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.95

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.94

Units: 0.95

ESS/CARL

TOTAL u154.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

West Coast/North Melbourne

Ryan Maric u20.5

Not the perfect under spot in terms of ground size/weather/matchup here but Maric’s defensive stat-padding, pig out role has totally disappeared which leaves him as a sub risk wing who doesn’t tackle or do much of anything really.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.77

Suggest 2-leg: Dylan Stephens 15+ ($2.25)

Next Best: Bet365 $1.87 (u19.5)

Units: 1.1

Zac Merrett u28.5

Zach has never been a fan of playing the Blues. He has a very poor history against them and on a wet cold night against a fresh blues team it won't be easy. There's a small chance of some attention from Alex Cincotta. Maybe used off half back again but the bombers have a plethora of scabby, left-footed little people back there so there is plenty of competition. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Archie Roberts u24.5 

What’s that? Scabby, left-footed little people? My ears are ringing. Archie has built his impressive numbers of a game style that was thrown out the window last week in exchange for a more aggressive, direct strategy. Essendon certainly won't be chipping around casually across half back tonight in the slippery cold conditions. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Liam Duggan o20.5

He's not a significant improvement offensively but defensively he is more organised than Maric so we've seen more Duggan back there recently. I expect north to win the clearance battle easily so they should be lots of inside 50s/behinds to rebound for the Eagles. Hands oval is one of the bigger grounds in the league so we should see low stoppage, high uncontested possession which will suit Duggan. Was carrying an injury recently, but a long rest and no travel staying in Perth will help. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.85

Units: 1

Jack Darling Goals

We won't often take a fwd who is a back up ruck at it takes away from their time in fwd half but there are a few other things going for Darling today. He'll get an ideal matchup in someone like Brock. Younger players often struggle on unique grounds like Hands Oval and Darling has the experience to know where to run. A fine day in Perth with a total on the way up.

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Next Best: TAB

Units: 

0.6U 2+ $2.85

0.15U 3+ $8.00

Melbourne u65.5 Team Total Points

The Demons have adopted a new run gun, handball heavy game style over the last six weeks or so. But that might have to change in the conditions today. We'll see slower ball movement in the conditions against far and away the best defence league has. The ground continued to be slippery last night despite no actually game time rain. It got a bit chopped up and will be worse today.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.95

Next Best: Ladbrokes u66.5 ($1.83)

Units: 0.95

Jack Crisp u18.5 Disposals

Crisp has been pushed onto a wing as the troops have returned into the midfield for the Pies. He had one big game in the last six weeks against Fremantle with big CBAs when there are a bunch of outs but aside from that has gone under this line every time. Should find it tough on the wing with projected rain all afternoon. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Next Best: Ladbrokes $1.77

Units: 1