Round 13 (2022)

RESULTS

DISPOSALS

Christian Petracca (o27.5) Tracc wasn't right 2 weeks ago against the Dockers (10 touches) and ran into the Swans last week. Up against the Pies this and there's a +33 differential between those 2 in uncontested ball and Tracc should be good for 2 or 3 of those. His season median is 30 and that's about where I see his line should be for this one.

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.85

Units: 1

Result: 32 disposals (WIN) Zac Merrett (u30.5) Zac has never seen much of the ball against the Blues. He hasn't gone o26.5 in any of his last 5 attempts. Keeping in mind that the Blues have sucked epically in that period. But now they're second best in the league at restricting oppo possession (admittedly only 6th best at limiting oppo uncont. poss. which is Zac's thing). Essendon have also modified their game style since the Hawks game and he's averaged 25.5 since then (4 games).

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.88

Units: 1

Result: 26 disposals (WIN) Josh Kelly (o29.5) This is a high line and I'm always conscious of 'buying high' but a great matchup for Kelly. Loves playing North, presumably to rub their faces in the fact that they never signed him. Has covered this line 3/4 times against North and is on a hot run otherwise. Has also covered the o29.5 in 5 of his last 7 games. Even with the slippery Darwin debacle, North are still 3rd in conceding uncontested possession in 2022.

Bookmaker: PointsBet $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 27 disposals (WIN) Jy Simpkin (o23.5) Ok ok hear me out. There's been a lot of Simpkin fails in the group this year but I'm sticking with him. He ran into Carlton and Freo in Rounds 7 and 8 then got sick and had hammy tightness before the Port game. When he returned, he copped the Dees. Then had 29 touches against the Saints who aren't easy and then the now infamous Darwin debacle (20 touches) where no one except Touk and Rowell touched the ball. GWS are playing a free and easy game style and I'm sticking with Jy on the low line.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Result: 31 disposals (WIN) Tom Mitchell (u29.5) Had his overs last week in a perfect matchup but this week is much tougher. Went back to more limited midfield time due to his dad Sam not being a fan of his pointless 30m panic dump kicks straight to the opposing half-back. If he can only get 32 against the Pies then I doubt he clears this line against the Dockers. None of Neale, Lyons or Zorko managed it last week.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.88

Units: 1

Result: 27 disposals (WIN) Jack Scrimshaw (o19.5)

His season average of 18 is dragged down by 2 sub games. The last in which he had 16 before half time. Without those games he's averaging 20. Teams are starting to rack up numbers across HB against Freo.

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.85

Units: 1

Result: 15 disposals (LOSS)

Viney (o23.5) Line got too low here. Viney has been killing it lately (32,28,27 last 3) and is exactly the kind of player to lift on these occasions. Pies midfield concede heavy numbers.

Bookmaker: TopSport $2.00

Units: 1

Result: 33 disposals (WIN)

Ed Langdon (o24.5)

Melbourne are in a strong bounce back spot here after a few losses and a tough week. Ed comes up against the Pies who as we know give up a lot of ball to opposition mids and wings. Clearance rate is strong, taking away his injured game. Unlikely threat of a tag either which saw him only collect 9 against the Hawks. Looks like we’re taking a few Demons mids here!

Bookmaker: TAB $2.50

Units: 0.5

Result: 11 disposals (LOSS)

TOTAL POINTS

Market: GWS v.s NM over 168.5

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.90

Units: 2

Result: 155 (LOSS)

GOAL SCORERS

Jake Riccardi

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes (2+)

Units: 2

Result: 3.0 (WIN)*