Round 12 (2025)

Brisbane/Essendon

Like a few total under spots but will spread some units around to even out the risk. Any props to come closer to game time…

TOTAL u174.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 0.5

Essendon First Half TOTAL u31.5

Expecting some serious park-the-bus stuff from the Bombers in the first half with this lineup. If they don’t it’ll be 100+. Been terrible at turning defence into offence all season. Worst D50 to F50 team in the league so slow play ain’t gonna work.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.5

First Quarter TOTAL u42.5

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.5

Gold Coast/Fremantle

TOTAL u169.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Nic Martin u25.5 Disposals

We're already getting some rain out there which makes it tough for Martin who will be a roaming HFF. Has been taking the piss at home against some poor teams. Won't be able to accumulate as easily at the Gabba. The Lions are a tough uncontested matchup and the Bombers have packed the team with half backs already.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Nick Daicos o27.5

Finn McGuinness was touted as a possible tagging option tonight but is listed as the sub, so we’ll hit Nick here. We’re also getting a discount on a historical negative match up against the Hawks midfield which doesn't exist any more. They're actually one of the easier teams over the last few months for opposition midfielders to accumulate. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Highest Scoring Half (First)

The Pies strategy for the last few seasons is top come out hard, get a lead and then sit back and control the game. As a result, 72% of their games this season have had higher scoring 1st halves. That number is 60% for the Hawks. The normal trend across the league is for 2nd halve to be higher scoring, hence the price. These are 2 elite coaches so more often than not their post break adjustments result in elite defensive setups.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.10

Units: 0.85

John Noble u24.5

The Dockers in the last 5 weeks have run at -9% to the designated kicker. We’ve had 30mm of rain on the Gold Coast in the last 24 hours and it is not expected to stop until tomorrow which makes things hard for a high % uncontested player like Noble. Picking off high numbers in these spots is the way to go.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 1.05

Andrew Brayshaw u28.5

Has had good coverage on this number so far this season but this is a special circumstance in potentially monsoonal conditions with a player who has one of the highest uncontested ratios in the competition at 61%.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Jeremy Sharp u16.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.76

Units: 1.1

GWS/Richmond

The opposite to up north on the Gold Coast today we have an uncontested free for all at Sydney Showgrounds. The Tigers are going to be traffic cones on the road for the rest of the season in my opinion and fading them will be a theme.  

Connor Idun 20*+

A consistent performer for the Giants who really only goes under this mark when he has an opposition player to lockdown on. Should be a straightforward cover with the epic Tigers uncontested road boost. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Lachie Whitfield 30*+

Whitfield in an uncontested matchup like this is like a lion in a pet shop. Shitfield was moved around a bit last week due to availability problems. He should play back but I don't think it really matters where he plays, he'll be a pig and shit all day.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.72

Units: 1.25

Jesse Hogan Goals

A little bit of obvious bet is obvious here. The Sherrin has been accepted for permanent residency inside the Giants forward 50 and is about to meet a cute new guy in Jesse and have a beautiful relationship.

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units: 

0.6U 4+ $2.45

0.3U 5+ $4.50 

0.1U 6+ $9.50

Sydney/Adelaide

Jordan Dawson u26.5

As mediocre as the Swans have been, the SCG might be the hardest place in the league right now to gather possessions for opposition midfielders. Dawson has revelled in a few easier match ups over the last few weeks but will certainly see some attention if not from Jordan then from Rowbottom. This should also tie in to a strong response in general after being embarrassed last week by the Dees.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

Josh Kelly (GWS) o23.5

Picking off a low number here after 2 tough matchups and one injury effected. Should really be tearing the Tigers to shreds.

Bookmaker: Sportbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

Matt Rowell MOST DISPOSALS (Group A)

Bit of a pot shot here. Contested beast in what should be a contest heavy game with lots of stoppages. Half of them created by him probably.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $21

Units: 0.1

Melbourne/St Kilda

Christian Petracca o24.5 

Not quite sure why the low line here. The Saints are a slight net negative to midfield but have a totally new mix in there with Jones and Clark playing. Tracc dominated a tough matchup in the Swans last week and can easily lose attention on the open spaces at Alice. Had covered 7 of the last 7.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1.05

Jack Sinclair o27.5

Should be full pig-outs for Sinclair today. We’ve had some huge uncontested counts on Trager which is one of the biggest grounds in the league. The Dees themselves have conceded +14% uncontested when playing away and +9% to half back this season. Sinclair doesn’t get involved too much in the midfield these days with Ross using him and Nas to rebound off HB.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.92

Units: 1

West Coast/Geelong

Geelong Q4 o27.5 

West Coast are the second worst Q4 team in the league in terms of margin and the Cats lead the league in Q4 differential. The match total is a little low here so we'll go with the team quarter total. Should be some energy still in the legs off a 10-day break. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.98

Units: 0.95

Ollie Dempsey Goals

Fully aboard the Dempsey as Wing/FF train now. Has averaged 3.4 shots per game in the last 5 and played even deeper last week. Expected a second half shootout where he should get involved.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.6U 2+ $2.25

0.3U 3+ $5.50

0.1U 4+ $16.00