Round 12 (2023) RS

RESULTS

Handicaps/H2Hs

Gold Coast H2H

Putting it simply, the Suns are the best in the league in slippery conditions. In the off-season they train in high humidity and are far better acclimatised to the heat as well. Last weeks in game humidity was around 35% and they found a way against the Dogs. This week we’re back up around 70% and the Suns know to just get it long and accrue low uncontested numbers.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.97

Units: 1

GWS H2H

Massive win on the weekend for GWS. Himmelberg strengthens their key position stocks whilst the Tigers in our opinion have bottomed out as a side. Port could've put Richmond to the sword on the weekend but allowed inaccurate kicking to hold them back from doing so. It must also be highlighted that Port were able to get this win without their two best forwards. The Tigers don't like facing GWS away from the G having lost 6 of their last 6 with their last win coming back in 2014 when the Giants were a team of kids. Also love Richmond away from the MCG where they went 2-6-1 last year compared to 13-1. They're currently 1-2 away from the MCG. We’e also not convinced that the was any sort of a lift from the Tigers last weekend from Dimma leaving and nor do we think there will be one. He was well loved by the players and left on a far different note than most coaches do when we see those typical bounce back performance from teams that had low morale and pushed their coach out the door.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.85

Units: 1

TOTAL POINTS

GC/ADE u161.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

GC/ADE (2nd Half) u81.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Karl Amon (u21.5)

We tend to like backing players to do well against their old side, but this one doesn't look good for Amon. Port are the toughest team in the comp for uncontested guys who play wing. With Sicily out the side, Amon is close to the best bull user for the Hawks. Expecting Hinkley to have someone put some work into him.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Rory Atkins (u19.5)

GC play a very low uncontested style in their Darwin games. Atkins has been demoted from kick-out duties and comes up again the best team at preventing uncontested ball in the comp in Adelaide. It’s the unders on the Rat. Also a sub risk as he was taken out of the game last week.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Will Powell (u20.5)

Playing the conditions and the numbers here. Under this number 7/9 this year, 11/12 last year, and 16/22 the year prior. That alone tells us that this is a large number for Powell. Has made the step up and is getting more kick ins that years prior this year, but still isn't racking up big disposal counts. Tonight has a huge amount of humidity expected and will make it tough for teams to play a chip mark brand and will instead need to hurry and play direct.

Brayden Fiorini (u18.5)

Might seem a little crazy taking so many unders from the same team but these are truly special circumstances. Fiorini is totally out of the midfield rotation and will play wing in the toughest conditions imaginable.

Jordan Ridley (u23.5)

Ridley has covered this in his last 2 games but they were against very soft matchups and he hasn’t done it for before in 2023 and also went 2/20 in 2022 on this number. Has McGrath, Redman and Hind to compete with for delivery off the half back. Since Ratts took over no defender has covered their line against North.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1