Round 12 (2022)

RESULTS

DISPOSALS

Noah Anderson (o24.5)

Last week conditions were slippery and not suitable for this high % uncontested ball winner. GC were playing direct football which doesn't suit his game. Two weeks prior (after coming off an illness) he played against 2 teams rating in the top 6 for inhibiting uncontested ball (WB/FREO). NM rank #2 on the season for giving up uncontested ball to midfielders. Prior to his illness he was averaging 27.3 so trying for a bounce back here on Noah.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.92

Units: 1

Result: 21 disposals (LOSS)

Brandon Ellis (o22.5)

Ellis has had an even tougher run that Noah because he also played the Swans. Taking the overs for that reason plus the North matchup and is in some ripping form averaging 22.5 over a tough 5 week period.

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 11 disposals (LOSS)

David Mundy (u22.5)

Ol' man Mundy had a day out against the Pies in the wet a few weeks ago gathering 34. As we know the Pies are an easy matchup and everyone was brought back to his speed in the mud. Apart from that, he's only cleared that line 3/9. This week Longmuir has said that he's likely to use Aish on Neale this week after having great success with Aish on Clarry in the second half against the Dees which was a big factor in the comeback. Mundy is last in line these days so what this does is send him more to bench/fwd further limiting his impact.

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.85

Units: 1

Result: 20 disposals (WIN) Tom Mitchell (o29.5)

Sure he's has a little less mid time this year but his numbers against the Pies are ludicrous. He cleared 34.5 in his last 5 attempts and cleared 39.5 in 3 of those. Hawks will be gee'd up after a pathetic effort last week.

Bookmaker: PointsBet $1.95

Units: 1

Result: 32 disposals (WIN)

Ed Langdon (u23.5)

Swans are #1 at limiting uncontested ball which no doubt the books are aware of by now but Langdon will surely have his running ability limited to a small degree as well after being hospitalised with a rib concern. Swans have also used Mills to close check on the wing a fair bit lately.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 23 disposals (WIN)

Jack Crisp (o26.5)

Banking on a low line here. The Pies have had 2 wet games and then a tough matchup against Carlton. Even when he was sick, Crisp managed 27 and then was moved more to a HB role last week and still cleared the line. Much easier matchup here and if the books go low again, i'll hit the overs.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 25 disposals (LOSS)

Jy Simpkin (o24.5)

Everything has been against Simpkin in the last month. He missed the Port game with Illness and before that had a string of tough matchups (Freo, Melbourne, Carlton) which brought his line down to 23.5 last week against the Saints.

Bookmaker: PointsBet $1.87

Units: 1

Result: 20 disposals (LOSS)

TOTAL POINTS

Not much we like this week on the TP.

GOAL SCORERS

Wayne Milera

From crazy odds for the Wayne here. Has a bag of 4 to his name and up against the Eagles with no Rachele, he'll see his share chances.

Bookmaker: Bet365 (AGS/2+3+)

Units: 2.25

Result: 1.0 (WIN)*

Jeremy Cameron

All over Jezza this week. Keath is a good matchup for Hawkins which means Cameron will find himself on Ryan Gardner who frankly isn't up to the task against a guy who regularly punishes the Dogs.

Bookmaker: SportsBet (3+/4+/5+)

Units: 2.25

Result: 6.1 (WIN)*