Round 11 (2025)

GEE/WB

Jason Johannisen 20+

JJ has decent coverage on this over his career. We expect to see more attention go into Dale tonight from Mannagh and/or Close which will leave space for him. GEE +10% to half backs so far this season.

Bookmaker: TAB* $2.05

Units: 0.9

Essendon/Richmond

Tim Taranto u27.5 Disposals

Most likely will get the Setterfield treatment tonight as the Tigers most dangerous mid. There'll probably also be some slippery conditions making it tougher for uncontested ball in transition. Has only covered this line 40% of games this season. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Sam Durham o21.5 Disposals

Made for these games. The Bombers midfield was singled out by the media for it's lack of defensive effort and Durham will be flying around like a maniac. Historically a strong number for him as well. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1

RICH 1st Half u33.5

Bookmaker: TAB/Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Adelaide/West Coast

TOTAL o165.5 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

Carlton WIN (vs. GWS)

Neither of these two teams are going great guns at the moment. However, the Giants might've copped the final straw with Callahan going down. Their midfield now seems to consist of guys like Green, O’Halloran, Bedford and some cooked vets in Ward and Cogs. They’ll be up against a top four clearance side in the league when they were already bottom four with Callaghan. The Blues may welcome back some depth as well with the return of De Koning, Acres, Williams and Fogarty. The Giants may be one of the best teams in the league at repelling inside 50s however the barrage may be too much. The Blues have the bonus of an added days rest and it's kitchen sink time at 4-6. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1.05

Tom De Koning 20+

We’re 1/2 on TDK this season with a failure against the Eagles in the lowest stoppage game of the season. We’ll see more today and TDK is already a great matchup against the truck in Briggs let alone the added bonus of access to more ground balls against a poor Giants midfield. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 1

Adam Cerra 25+

We’re getting busy laying the Giants midfield this week. The Blues should dominate in there and Cerra, with his role as the defensive sweeper at contest should see a lot of free ball. Walsh will probably see some attention from Bedford and Cripps is always a candidate. Had a low game a few weeks ago after getting shifted around due to injuries. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.15

Units: 0.85

North Melbourne/Collingwood

Q1 o42.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1

Next Best: Lads ($1.82)

Jack Crisp 20+ Disposals

Been moved into the midfield in the last few weeks. Game didn’t develop in his favour last week but will cover this more often than not in this role. Role certainly won’t decrease with Sidebottom out.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.98

Units: 0.9

North Melbourne +33.5 

The Pies have a poor history at Docklands and have been carrying a bunch of injuries. Houston and Naicos are playing but not 100%. Moore, McStay, JDG and Schultz are out. They're still short down back and the North talls should do well. North's key metrics have shown great improvement over the last 5 games, are healthy, Paul Curtis is back and should at least be competitive today.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Fremantle/Port Adelaide

Shai Bolton o18.5 Disposals

Without Hayden Young, Bolton has been put into the middle with great effect. Only going under this number in the last 6 weeks in a very strange game at Docklands. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Harry Himmelberg AGS

Slightly speculative but should be moved up to the wing with Aleer in the side. Has experience when he rolls fwd, is verrrrrry hungry and can pot them from 55m. 

Bookmaker: TAB $4.00

Units: 0.3

Jai Newcombe u25.5 Disposals

Was in a moon boot earlier int the week. Should see lots of attention around stoppage from Josh Dunkley.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1.1

Michael Frederick Goals (FREO)

Think FREO should get this one done pretty easily tonight. Bolton fwd gives Frederick some more opportunity and Port are one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposition smalls.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.6 2+ $2.30

0.3U 3+ $5.50

0.1U 4+ $16

With Bobby Hill a late out here going to have a li'l dip at Will Hoskin Elliot. Often the guys who plays deeper fwd when others are out.

Will Hoskin-Elliot 2+ Goals

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $3.50

Units: 0.35

Mitch Hinge 20+ Disposals

Went off against the Dockers with an injury and the Showdown is maybe the toughest regular season game to gather touches in. Otherwise he’s covered in every other game. The Eagles allow +8% at the contest.

Bookmaker: TAB* $1.95

Units: 1

Oscar Allen Goals

Taking a West Coast player to kick goals in this one seems bonkers but Allen is getting an elevated price here due to his defensive role this season. Last week he returned fwd and played almost exclusively out of the goal square. He had 5 shots from inside the arc and on a sunny day in Adelaide with a total steaming through the roof, there's value here.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.4U 2+ $3.10

0.1U 3+ $9.00

Brady Hough u18.5 Disposals

Unproven in the midfield. Has had 4 weeks in there averaging 18.5 touches but this week should be playing a purely defensive role on Rankine or Dawson. A few trends are not in his favour including young players away and oppo mids at Adelaide Oval over the last few seasons.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Melbourne/Sydney

Trent Rivers u25.5 Disposals

Just too high here for his role and the opponent. Swans teh toughest in the league to oppo mids at the moment.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1.1

St Kilda/Gold Coast

First Half u85.5

Typically both of these teams will feel out the opposition early and then let the hand brake off in the second half. Don't think it'll be any different today.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Tex is out so it's Thilthy time I think.

Riley Thilthorpe Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

1U 3+ $1.80

0.4U 4+ $3.10