Round 11 (2024)

HANDICAPS

CARL/GC

Carlton -14.5 $1.90

Every year the Suns come of the Darwin games overrated in the market. Weitering Will play and Fogarty and Saad return. 

The Suns copped a 10-goal mid year flogging in this spot last year to the Blues and have an even worse record at the Dome. 

Great bounce back spot for the Blues after they were easily out-hustled by the Swans in the wet.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units: 1

Total Points

ADE/WC o164.5 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Brayden Maynard o17.5

FREO have given up +5% to half backs on the season (7 of the last 9 covering) as teams go switch heavy against them to try and shift FREO’s zone. Maynard has no obvious lockdown opponent in this one to distract him with Quaynor most likely to go with Walters. He moves up the pecking order in defence with Howe gone and Nick Daicos either injured or needed elsewhere. We could also see something fruity here like Moore moved fwd with their lack of options. We also expect the Dockers midfield to dominate here so there should be plenty of ball in D50. He's just the kind of player to step up in a back's against the wall, injury riddled away trip.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.79

Units: 1.1

If you miss the line at Sportsbet, the 20+ at $2.60 Ladbrokes is good value.

Zac Merrett 30+

Merrett has an incredible record against the Tigers. He struggled a bit more recently with some attention in the last month but Richmond aren't really capable at the moment I'm going with anyone. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.75

Units: 1.15

Stephen Coniglio o27.5 - Void due to injury

Was clearing this line easily prior to his knee strain. Has regained some fitness now and should be back to 100%. More often than not he plays a run with roll going with the oppositions best midfielder. That won't be necessary today as the Cats have piss all in there in terms of quality and leak a huge amount of touches to opposition midfielders at the moment. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Jye Caldwell o23.5

Caldwell is the primary beneficiary of the absence of Darcy Parish. He may not see the most CBAs but spends a lot of time higher up the ground at stoppages and will find himself in a lot of positions to win the ball tonight. After opening a bit higher today he’s come back to a backable spot. And of course the total lack of Richmond pressure.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Karl Amon u23.5

Scrimshaw and Sicily return to crowd up the backline/kickouts and BL conceding -6% uncontested on the season.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.83

Units: 1.1

Dayne  Zorko u28.5

This line is boosted by some very easy matchup in Richmond and Gold Coast and the Hawks are a neutral matchup to position. Career high line for Zorko that isn't sustainable.

Bookmaker: PointsBet $1.80

Units: 1.1

Liam Duggan u26.5

Been in good form lately but Adelaide away is a very tough spot for a defender. Especially in the second half as night conditions come into play.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1.1

GOAL SCORERS

Cam Rayner

With Hipwood out of the team we think Rayner plays as a lead up forward andBailey comes in to take that mid/fwd role off him. Fagan even suggested Rayner will play as a forward during the week.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

1U 2+ $3.80

0.35U 3+ $12

0.15U 4+ $41