Round 11 (2023) RS

RESULTS

HANDICAPS

Stk -13.5 (Second Half vs. HAW)

Pretty simple play here. Hawks who are coming off an easy win and are the worst second half team in the league come up against the Saints on their favourite deck who are the second best second half team in the league.

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.90

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Luke Parker (u26.5)

Parker has done his best to lift the Swans out of their slump and put up some big numbers against easy matchups. Comes up here against historically his worst matchup in Carlton (only over 24 once in his last 5). Only covered this 6/25 in 2022 and is averaging 24 this year.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.82

Units: 1

Nic Newman (u21.5)

Newman gets the job on that little terror Paps tonight. His numbers are skewed by a few huge games against soft opponents in WC and StK. On this number he was 12/19 coverage in 2022 and that’s about where he should be. Sydney in the last 5 weeks have preventing opposition defenders accumulation by 10% on the comp average and only 20% of defenders have covered their lines in that time.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.93

Units: 1

Lachie Whitfield (u27.5)

Some big numbers in the last few weeks off the back of the absence of Cumming and having played 2 of the top 3 in DESKCK concession. Playing at the Cattery this week which where the Cats are even better than their season concession of -6% on 41% coverage.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Lachie Ash (u23.5)

Similarly to Whitfield, he’s had some easy matchups until now and even failed to clear this line against the easiest matchup in the league for his position last week in StK. The cattery eats seagulls like Ash for brekky.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.97

Units: 1

Bailey Smith (u30.5)

Games in Darwin at TIO are a good opportunity to take the unders on some high (particularly visiting) uncontested ball winners. The average UNCONT count from the last 3 years at TIO (4 games) is 170. The league average this year is 220. Thats a huge 23% drop. Smith is a huge UNCONT ball winner with the 64% of his possessions coming from that source. His big 3 game stretch prior to this one means hopefully we get a playable line.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Jack Macrae (u27.5)

Defensive liabilities have him out of the mid rotation now with Caleb Daniel preferred even in the absence of Adam Treloar. Then see the reason above in this matchup.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.77

Units: 1

Will Ashcroft (u24.5)

Has gone hog wild at home this season and especially in the last few weeks. He averages 28.6 at home and 18 away. He the highest % uncontested ball winner at the Lions and the Crows at AO is the single toughest place in the league at the moment to accumulate uncontested ball.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87 (‘25+ No’)

Units: 2

Hugh McCluggage (u24.5)

Similarly to Ashcroft, McCluggage has had a charmed run at home in that last fortnight and turned his season around. We predict that he’ll also find AO a difficult place to collect and we’re on the unders.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Steele Sidebottom (o22.5)*

It’s his 300th and the Roos are a great uncontested matchup so we’re backing him in to go full potty on the disposals and the AGS.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.92

Units: 1

*Bet was voided due to early game injury.