Round 10 (2025)

Gold Coast/Hawthorn

Touk Miller Goals

Silly price. Has kicked  nine goals from eight games this season in a new hybrid fwd/mid role. We've got a high total in this one with a lot of expected goals in the 180’s. Added to that it’s Touk’s 200th game and as probably the most loved clubman on the Gold Coast, they’ll be looking for him. Especially late.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

1U AGS $1.91

0.3U 2+ $5.00

0.05U 3+ $19

Ben Long Goals

He has been getting plenty of opportunities in front of goal. We like GC to win big tonight and put a decent score on the Hawks. The Hawks have a decent capability of containing Ben King so we’ll look to a few others. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units: 

1.1U 2+ $1.90

0.35U 3+ $3.80

0.15U 4+ $9.25

Gold Coast H2 -4.5

Both teams playing 2 games in 11 days here. The Suns are far more used to the conditions and have made a ream of changes to their bottom 6 to stay fresh. The Suns have had some dominant second halves this season. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.91

Units: 1

Josh Battle u19.5 Disposals

Jersh went crazy in easy matchups when the defence was undermanned. He had 33 against the Tigs and 29 against the Eagles. Now Amon, Scrimshaw and Jiath and back. Not to mention Sicily and Hardwick defending full time so he’s way down the pecking order for distribution. 34% coverage on this line over the past few seasons. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Sydney -6.5 (vs. Carlton)

The media is piling on the Swans and writing them off for the season this week which is always a good sign for a rebound. They’ve won the last 3 games by xScore and just sprayed it everywhere in the fourth quarter by running over teams. The Blues will be without their dynamic ruck in TDK this week and the Swans always shut down Cripps and Walsh. The Blues have only won twice at this ground since 1993.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Patrick Cripps u26.5

Hasn’t covered this line in years against the Swans. Has been beat up a fair bit across the start of the season and will get Rowbottom running around on him. SYD -11% to MID across the season.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

George Hewett MOST Disposals (Group A)

Never under the threat of a tag. Most of that attention will go to both Walsh and Cripps. On the Swan side they don't have any bigger accumulators that frequently go into the high 20s. A nice little bonus is that George is familiar with the SCG and play well here after his long career with the Swans.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Bet365 $3.75

Units: 0.35

Jaxon Binns u19.5

Doesn't even cover this regularly in the VFL. Nice first game of the year vs. STK. Different kettle of fish here.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.77

Units: 1.1

Port Adelaide/Geelong

Geelong -6.5 

The Cats are an elite bounce back team and have all the weapons at both ends to trouble the Power. They found something last week at clearance as well with Blix in the ruck and just have to break even there to get it done against Port.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Q1 Total o43.5 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Mark Blicavs 20+ Disposals

Without Stanley he keeps the ruck role with SDK needed down back. Up against Visentini he should run him off his legs around the ground.

Bookmaker: TAB* $3.80

Units: 0.35

Mitch Georgiades Goals

The Cats defenders really struggled last week and are starting to feel the lack of Stewart. Jack Henry is back this week but may be a touch rusty. Georgiades is the #1 targeted fwd in the league as the Power don’t have a lot of other tall options. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units:

0.6U 3+ $2.50

0.25U 4+ $5.50

Patrick Dangerfield Goals

Port don't have a good match up here. They're also one of the worst inside 50 ground ball teams in the league and routinely smalls kick bags on them. Dangerfield with his simian low level of gravity can scoop a few up and kick a bag tonight..

Bookmaker: TAB

Units:

1U $1.85

0.3U $3.60

0.01U $8.50

Zac Guthrie u19.5 Disposals

Port at AO have always been a net negative to the halfback and Guthrie has struggled with this number recently and that won't improve with the return of Humphries and Duncan back there as well. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Western Bulldogs/Essendon

Total u176.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals

Was a bit hesitant to post too much from this game but can't help myself. Loves playing the Power, is hitting form and should do well for all the same reasons as Danger.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.50

Units: 0.6

Marcus Bontempelli u25.5 Disposals

Last season in this matchup, best player in the league Sam Durham dismantled the Bont and the Bombers flogged the Dogs. The Dons are unlikely to move away from what works. Teams and players coming back from Darwin often experience a let down spot and Bont with his limited prep is in that boat.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

North Melbourne/Richmond

Cam Zurhaar Goals

Without Paul Curtis Cam has been the man inside 50 for the Roos. He has had 5 shots vs. PA, 4 shots vs. ESS and 6 shots vs. BL. Should see ample opportunities today and if he converts, could kick a bag.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes 

Units:

0.5U 3+ $2.80

0.2U 4+ $5.80

Caleb Daniel 25+ Disposals

Training reports have Sheeze running through half forward and the midfield this week leaving Daniel as the primary distributor across half back. The Tigers have been a big conceder of touches back there all year and I think we’ll see a bounce for Caleb today.

Bookmaker: TAB* $2.10 

Units: 0.9

Brisbane/Melbourne

Q1 u42.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units:  0.75

Highest Scoring Half (second)

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 0.75

Tim Kelly u18.5 Disposals

Will be playing a full-time fwd role and the historical data has him projected too high here.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.75

Units: 1.15