Round 10 (2023) RS

RESULTS

HANDICAPS

Brisbane Lions (-23.5) $1.90

The simple stats on the Lions are well known. They haven't lost at the GABBA this year and rarely do. They haven't lost to the Suns in the last 8 meetings and have won those games by an average of 48 points. Granted this Suns team is more mature than those earlier teams however the Suns recent form-line is a little misleading. They flogged a pitiful West Coast team that is has actually been far worse at home than away in the last few years. There was North, enough said. They played well against the Demons but in their ideal slippery night Gold Coast conditions. They've over-performed in the last month without Miller and now is the time to take them on.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

TOTAL POINTS

BL/GC (o174.5)

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Clayton Oliver (u32.5)

A bit hard going against Oliver given the form he is, but gets his least favourite match up in the comp in Port where he has never cleared this number against them in his career. Port are one of the best in the comp when it comes to limiting opposition midfield numbers, and with Willem Drew in the side, I expect Port to use him to put some work into Oliver throughout the match.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Seb Ross (o22.5)

Mega low line for Ross based on his output for the last two games. Is still averaging over this number and has cleared in 6/8 games. Averaged over 25 last year and cleared this in 18/21 games. An absolute no brainer today against the Giants who have trended in the last month to be one of the best midfield matchups in the league.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.96

Units: 1

Sam Walsh (o29.5)

Currently Walsh is averaging 30 disposals per game which is down on his 32.1 from last year. As the year progresses I expect to see him working into fitness and trend towards that 32.1 and probably a line much closer to that. This line is simply too low for him today, he cleared in 15/20 last year and today looks like a good match up. Recently teams have been moving the ball a bit slower vs the Pie to stem their quick ball movement, this had led to the Pies giving up massive uncontested numbers which is great for Walsh. He had 35 on them last year and this is a great spot on a line that’s a few disposals too low.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1