Round 10 (2022)

RESULTS

DISPOSALS

Brad Crouch (o27.5)

Braddles has been in hot form lately and comes up against his old side (always a bit of extra spice). He'll be St Kilda's #1 contested player with Steele out and the Crows rank #2 for contested possession allowance this season and have conceded 10% more than the comp average in the last month.

Bookmaker: PointsBet $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 31 disposals (WIN) Nick Daicos (u23.5)/ Jack Crisp (u27.5)

Looks like it's going to be wet in the west which won't help the Pies top 2 uncontested ball winners. Also, Freo rank #4 for limiting uncontested possession and I like this as a bounce back spot for them. They should be all over the Pies with their pressure and press game after an uncharacteristically weak performance against the Suns (conceded 174 contested possessions, the second worst performance by any club this season). Results: 23/27 (WIN/WIN)

Nick Daicos

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 23 disposals (WIN)

Jack Crisp

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 27 disposals (WIN)

Will Brodie (o25.5)

The Pies are getting obliterated around the ball at the moment. The lost the contested count by 40 last week and Freo in the wet aren't going to let up. Brodie is #1 for contested ball at the dorks. This guy is constantly underquoted by the books clearing this line 6/9.

Result: 36 (WIN)

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.90

Units: 1

Result: 36 disposals (WIN) Luke Parker (u24.5)

Swans continue to prioritise youth in the middle. Parker gets his CBAs put pushes fwd a fair bit. Has not cleared 23.5 in his last 5 attempts against the Blues and Carlton have got much better at limiting oppo mids in 2022 (#1 limit cont poss and Parker #1 at the Swans).

Bookmaker: SportsBet $1.89

Units: 1

Result: 25 disposals (LOSS)

Connor Budarick (o14.5)

The Dogs dominant midfield and suspect goal kicking means big numbers for the kick-out man. Budarick has taken over from Weller in the last few weeks with Weller going up to the wing. Budarick has gone 18 and 19 in the last few weeks and the Suns love him.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.80

Units: 1

Result: 8 disposals (LOSS)

James Jordon (o19.5)

20+ Jordon is a high uncontested player and much like Pickett last week, I think it's best to back the younger players who are looking to impress. Petracca spent large periods fwd last week and Oliver just wandered around. North's numbers from the last 5 games in conceding uncontested possession are 15%(!) above the rest of the comp.

Bookmaker: TopSport $1.86

Units: 1

Result: 22 disposals (WIN)

TOTAL POINTS

Market: GC vs. WB over 158.5

Bookmaker: LadBrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Result: 193 (WIN)

GOAL SCORERS

Tom Papley

Paps has had a slow start to the year but we're backing him in today in a great matchup.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet (2+/3+/4+/5+)

Units: 3

Result: 3.2 (WIN)*

Chad Wingard

Has had multiple scores in all 6 games as a forward this year. Also a great spot for Hawks who are always competitive against the Lions in what should be a shootout.

Bookmaker: SportsBet (2+/3+/4+)

Units: 1

Result: 3.0 (WIN)*

David Swallow

Spent time forward last week and is named again there this week.

Bookmaker: PointsBt (AGS, 2+/3+)

Units: 0.75

Result: 0.0 (LOSS)*