Round 1 (2023) B & F

RESULTS

TOTAL POINTS

GWS vs. ADE over 171.5

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.90

Units: 2

StK team points under 73.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.83

Units: 4

The Saints come up against one of the best set defences in the league without a few of their key forwards in Membrey and King. Tom Campbell hasn't made the team which means Marshall will be unable to push forward. A Lyon doesn't change their spots and we all know what kind of footy Ross like to play. Defence. Defence. Defence.

Essendon team points O87.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Marcus Bontempelli (25+)

The restructuring of the Dogs line up means we should see the Bont in a much greater midfield role in 2023. Last year he battled on and off with niggles and spent a number of games being used as a forward due to lack of options up there. This however will change this year and I expect him to go back to his numbers of 2021 which saw him clear this in 20/26 games and in 3/3 vs Melbourne.

Bookmaker: Betr $1.70

Units: 1

Lachie Hunter (20+)

Great price here on Hunter. With the way the Dees use their wings, he’ll be scurrying around on 95% TOG. He looks fitter than ever with those 2022 tuck-shop lady arms gone. Has been clearing this line easily for years and has the extra bit of spice with the revenge game.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.10

Units: 1

Ben Cunnington (25+)

The man every Roo fan wishes was their dad is back at full fitness for 2023. Having the year off and posting some numbers whilst not at full fitness has put the bookies numbers out. Had 80% TOG and 27 touches against a Dogs team who weren’t keen on sharing the ball. Comes up against a WC team who were routinely abused by every man and his dog last year.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.40

Units: 1

Josh Kelly (o27.5)

Looks to be playing as an inside mid this year. When given that opportunity he comfortably posts strong numbers. Had 76% CBAs in the practice match for 36 disposals. When given more than 60% CBAs in 2022 he went 5/6 and 30+ in 4/6. Should be licking his lips against a young Crows midfield that gave up plenty last year.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Karl Amon (u24.5)

This one just feels a bit too high given the circumstances of his new side. Last year the Power had an average of 30 extra disposals per game and a far stronger midfield. We view the Hawks midfield as the weakest in the league which doesn't help Amon who will be playing on the outside and relying on inside grunt. He managed 23 in preseason where disposals are usually easier to come by, should be tough in the real thing.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Dylan Moore (u22.5)

We love Dyl and he had a great run at the end of 2022 with some high midfield minutes. Didn't see any time in there in the pre season and will be parked forward to start the year. Tough line to beat as a high half forward.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

GOAL SCORERS

Charlie Curnow & Harry McKay

Early in the season here and we should see some shoot-outs. We like the matchups in this one against the Tigers as we.

Bookmaker: SportsBet $2 (5+ goals combined)

Units: 2

Oscar Allen

This is a great spot for him to shine. With Ben McKay ruled out, #1 defender Griffin Logue should go Jack Darling and learn what it’s like being one out inside defensive 50 playing for North. That leaves Oscar and his 2m of power to tear apart Ziebell or Bonar or whatever poor bastard ends up on him.

Bookmaker: TopSport

Units: 1.5

1U 3+ $3.35

0.4U 4+ $7.50

0.1U 5+ $19

TopSport

Jaidyn Stephenson

Bookmaker: Mixed (see below)

Units: 1.1 Jaidyn played a half in the prakky as a deep forward, kicking 1.1. He never looked settled in any role last year and it looks like Clarko will settle him as a FF/HF. He’s shown he can kick bags in the past using his speed on the rebound whilst running back to goal. The Eagles are short in the speed department. Let’s hope he gets the serial leaky bucket boy Alex Witherden as a matchup.

0.7U 2+ $3.90 Lads

0.25U 3+ $10 PB

0.15U 4+ $31 TopSport

Nat Fyfe

We’ve got Freo spanking the Saints here. Fyfe is trimmed up and had a fantastic pre-season. His mid days are over so expect to see him living in the fwd 50. The odds have lengthened due to the low total but the ball will spend enough time up there for us to strike.

0.8U 2+ $2.15

0.4U 3+ $4.25

0.2U 4+ $12

Bet365