NBA Week 1 & AFLW Round 11 Tips (2025)
- AFL Sharp
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
NBA Week 1 Tips
Golden State/LA Lakers
GSW Win
The Warriors were in some incredible form after the acquisition of Butler last season finishing the season 30-11 in 41 games. They beat the 2 seed Rockets as favourites and then ran into some injuries against the Wolves. They're healthy again (for now) and have added the perfect centre for their game style in Al Horford. They have a lot of great switching options for Luka and Reaves so the Lakers will struggle here to get enough offence going to win.
Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.77
Next Best: Sportsbet -2.0 ($1.88)
Units: 1.15
Oklahoma City/Houston
OKC -6.5
The Rockets have lost ball handling experience with FvF out and will rely on Amen and Sengun to start the offence. That’s gonna be tough against an elite defence. Durant is there but the cohesion will take time. Jalen Williams is out for the Thunder but they can cover him easier. There some strong recent history in games where the championship banner is unveiled, the Chip winners cover. The crowd will be raucous and the Thunder should roll.
Bookmaker: Dabble $1.88
Next Best: Betr $1.86
Units: 1
Oklahoma City/Houston
Alperun Sengun Threes
Sometimes when you’ve had all off-season to think about plays this is where you end up. A bit speculative but the Rockets are playing a massive lineup today without any spacing. Someone’s gotta shoot 3s. Jabari and Durant are the only real shooters. Since the loss of Van Vleet, the Rockets have looked to use Sengun as the hub of the offence. This leaves him at the top of the key giving hand offs to Durant or looking for back cuts to Thompson at the rim. Smarter teams MIGHT just sag off him and let him shoot from deep. Jokic punishes teams when they do this but Sengun only shot 23% from 3 last year. However he showed some improvement in EuroBasket shooting 31%. This is a low risk, high upside play. He could shoot 5 attempts or zero depending on how OKC respond to the new offence.
Bookmaker: Bet365
Units: ***
0.2U 1+ $3.65
0.05U 2+ $16
0.02U 3+ $41
Charlotte/Brooklyn
Nic Claxton o18.5 PR
Bit of an off year last year with a niggling back injury and an epic run of grumpiness resulting in some hilarious ejections. Looked nimble and involved in the pre season and averaged 0.88 PR-per minute. I’ve got him at 30 minutes which should let him clear easily against Charlotte. The Hornets have decided the centre position doesn’t exist and will also be playing early shot clock jack-it ball giving Claxton multiple opportunities on the defensive glass and in transition.
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.83
Units: 0.6
Miami/Orlando
TOTAL o216.5
Spoelstra has had the Heat running 16 second shot clocks and 4 second back courts in order to get the running the floor after last year's disgusting offensive late game shamozzles. Orlando on the other hand were elite defensively but have lost KCP and Suggs from their starting 5 who are the back bone of their defence. Bane has come in to spread the floor, who while not being a poor defending, ain't the same POA defender as the other 2.
Bookmaker: TAB $1.90 (PlayUp 215.5 $1.91 Not quoting micros)
Units: 1
Norm Powell 20+ Points
On that point, limited POA defence helps Powell a lot who will be lumped with a lot of the offence in the absence of Herro and ball handling of Jakucionas. Looked up for it and fit in the pre season.
Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95
Units: 0.5
Wendell Carter Jnr 10+ Points (9+ promo)
Bookmaker: TAB $1.95
Units: 0.5
Miami/Orlando
Jalen Suggs u13.5 PRA
Bookmaker: TAB $1.95
Units: 0.5
Toronto/Atlanta
Brandon Ingram o1.5 Threes
Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.83
Units: 0.6
Washington/Milwaukee
AJ Green o2.5 Threes
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.05
Units: 0.45
Detroit/Chicago
Duncan Robinson o2.5 Threes
Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.69
Units: 0.75
San Antonio/Dallas
Victor Wembanyama Turnovers
Bookmaker: Pointsbet
Units:
0.4 4+ $2.35
0.15 5+ $4.00
Cooper Flagg u6.5 Rebounds
Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.72
Units: 0.7
Victor Wembanyama u2.5 Threes
Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.68
Units: 0.7
San Antonio/Dallas
Dylan Harper u18.5 PRA
Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.86
Units: 0.5
Egor Demin Threes
Might be hitting this one a few times over the next few weeks. Demin is not starting and I think he'll get 16-18 minutes. Very misleading college numbers on the 3-ball. Can shoot. Can ball. Can't pronounce.
Bookmaker: Bet365
Units:
0.25U 2+ $3.50
0.1U 3+ $8.50
0.02U 4+ $34.00