NBA Week 1 & AFLW Round 11 Tips (2025)

NBA Week 1 Tips

Golden State/LA Lakers

GSW Win

The Warriors were in some incredible form after the acquisition of Butler last season finishing the season 30-11 in 41 games. They beat the 2 seed Rockets as favourites and then ran into some injuries against the Wolves. They're healthy again (for now) and have added the perfect centre for their game style in Al Horford. They have a lot of great switching options for Luka and Reaves so the Lakers will struggle here to get enough offence going to win.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.77

Next Best: Sportsbet -2.0 ($1.88)

Units: 1.15

Oklahoma City/Houston

OKC -6.5

The Rockets have lost ball handling experience with FvF out and will rely on Amen and Sengun to start the offence. That’s gonna be tough against an elite defence. Durant is there but the cohesion will take time. Jalen Williams is out for the Thunder but they can cover him easier. There some strong recent history in games where the championship banner is unveiled, the Chip winners cover. The crowd will be raucous and the Thunder should roll. 

Bookmaker: Dabble $1.88

Next Best: Betr $1.86

Units: 1

Oklahoma City/Houston

Alperun Sengun Threes

Sometimes when you’ve had all off-season to think about plays this is where you end up. A bit speculative but the Rockets are playing a massive lineup today without any spacing. Someone’s gotta shoot 3s. Jabari and Durant are the only real shooters. Since the loss of Van Vleet, the Rockets have looked to use Sengun as the hub of the offence. This leaves him at the top of the key giving hand offs to Durant or looking for back cuts to Thompson at the rim. Smarter teams MIGHT just sag off him and let him shoot from deep. Jokic punishes teams when they do this but Sengun only shot 23% from 3 last year. However he showed some improvement in EuroBasket shooting 31%. This is a low risk, high upside play. He could shoot 5 attempts or zero depending on how OKC respond to the new offence.   

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: ***

0.2U 1+ $3.65

0.05U 2+ $16

0.02U 3+ $41

Charlotte/Brooklyn

Nic Claxton o18.5 PR

Bit of an off year last year with a niggling back injury and an epic run of grumpiness resulting in some hilarious ejections. Looked nimble and involved in the pre season and averaged 0.88 PR-per minute. I’ve got him at 30 minutes which should let him clear easily against Charlotte. The Hornets have decided the centre position doesn’t exist and will also be playing early shot clock jack-it ball giving Claxton multiple opportunities on the defensive glass and in transition. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 0.6

Miami/Orlando

TOTAL o216.5

Spoelstra has had the Heat running 16 second shot clocks and 4 second back courts in order to get the running the floor after last year's disgusting offensive late game shamozzles. Orlando on the other hand were elite defensively but have lost KCP and Suggs from their starting 5 who are the back bone of their defence. Bane has come in to spread the floor, who while not being a poor defending, ain't the same POA defender as the other 2. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90 (PlayUp 215.5 $1.91 Not quoting micros)

Units: 1

Norm Powell 20+ Points

On that point, limited POA defence helps Powell a lot who will be lumped with a lot of the offence in the absence of Herro and ball handling of Jakucionas. Looked up for it and fit in the pre season.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95

Units: 0.5

Wendell Carter Jnr 10+ Points (9+ promo)

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.5

Miami/Orlando

Jalen Suggs u13.5 PRA

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.5

Toronto/Atlanta

Brandon Ingram o1.5 Threes

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.83

Units: 0.6

Washington/Milwaukee 

AJ Green o2.5 Threes

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.05

Units: 0.45

Detroit/Chicago

Duncan Robinson o2.5 Threes

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.69

Units: 0.75

San Antonio/Dallas

Victor Wembanyama Turnovers

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

0.4 4+ $2.35

0.15 5+ $4.00

Cooper Flagg u6.5 Rebounds 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.72

Units: 0.7

Victor Wembanyama u2.5 Threes

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.68

Units: 0.7

San Antonio/Dallas

Dylan Harper u18.5 PRA

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.86

Units: 0.5

Egor Demin Threes

Might be hitting this one a few times over the next few weeks. Demin is not starting and I think he'll get 16-18 minutes. Very misleading college numbers on the 3-ball. Can shoot. Can ball. Can't pronounce.

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units: 

0.25U 2+ $3.50

0.1U 3+ $8.50

0.02U 4+ $34.00

ATL@ORL

TOTAL o228.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes 1.90

Units: 1

Al Horford o4.5 Rebounds

Apparently on a 20-24 mins limit but I expect that to be on the higher end today. He'll be kept fresh for these match-ups where he has to defend guys like Jokic and Giannis. Has gone over this in all of his last 7 games vs Jokic and covered last game as well off 20 mins. Could potentially start over Kuminga as well and will close if the game is close.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.20

Units: 0.4

Victor Wembanyama o27.5 Pts

As we predicted in the Spurs first game, Vic stopped taking threes and just attacked the paint. What we didn't think was gonna happen was that Lively, AD and Flagg would be helpless to stop him. The Pelicans have lost a bunch of centres and hilariously just signed De’Andre Jordan. Bad sign for the questionable tags of Missi and Matkovic. Either way, the Pels are a bottom 5 defence and Wemby is going to get whatever he wants in the paint today. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 0.5

Jalen Duren u25.5 PRA

The Pistons are set on giving Ausar more court time and historically they've been unwilling to give him minutes on the court with Duren as they're both non-shooters. The loss of Beasley and THJ make this more of an issue. Stewart outperformed him on day 1 and it's one of the tougher matchups regardless with the Rockets double big setup. Always a candidate for foul trouble against someone like Sengun.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.90

Units: 0.5

MIA/MEM

TOTAL o232.5

Bookmaker: TAB/Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

OKC@ATL

Atlanta +6.5

Sharps data TM has home underdogs on B2Bs being undervalued ATS (at the spread) early in the year covering 58% of the time. The Thunder have played 2 epic double OT games and that has put the kms on SGA. He's been the sole reason that the Thunder have gotten over the line in those game and they now may be without Chet along with JWill, Caruso and Joe. You'll see some fun units like Dieng, Barnhizer and Youngblood get minutes. Porzingis probably won't suit up but the Hawks can keep this close without him. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Pointsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Pascal Siakam o4.5 Assists

9 potentials for Nembhard before going off at HT. No other ball handlers for IND now and Pascal will go back to peak Raptors domination. Memphis games are an All-star style free for all atm. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 0.55

IND@MINN

Minnesota -7.5

Serious ball handling issues for the Pacers against a T'Wolves team who just got embarrassed by Luka.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.90

Units: 1

TOR/DAL

TOTAL u231.5

Dallas defence at 0-2 will dominate here.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.90

Units: 1

AFLW Round 11 Tips

Sydney/West Coast

West Coast +6.5

The Swans have lost their 2 best forwards and are going to struggle to deal with the key marking strength of the Eagles. The Eagles might conceivable lose the inside 50 battle but win easily by making the most of their entries.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Essendon/Hawthorn

Essendon +22.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Total u81.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Western Bulldogs/Geelong

TOTAL u76.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Carlton/GWS

GWS +16.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Madeleine Guerin Disposals

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units:

0.3U 20+ $4.50

0.1U 25+ $21