AFL Round 3 & NBA Week 23 (2026)

AFL Plays

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows

Geelong Q4 -6.5

Pumped everyone last season in the final Q, ranking #1. Did the same to Fremantle last week and should do the same to another travelling side here. The crows are banged up, have a bunch of youth in the team are are in a double 6 day break stretch. The cats are in full health and should run over them late.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 0.5

Ben Keays MOST Goals

The Crows played 4 wet games last year and in 3 of them he kicked the most or equal most.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $29

Next Best: Sportsbet $26

Units: 0.1

Max Holmes MOST Disposals

Also a great wet weather performer. Only up against Bailey Smith really with the Crows lack of proper accumulators. Had 40 in the last wet game here at Kardinia. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $3.25

Next Best: TAB $3.00

Units: 0.25

TOTAL Q1 u42.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 0.5

Collingwood/GWS

Darcy Cameron 15+/Nick Daicos 25+/Lachie Whitfield 25+

Bookmaker: TAB $2.10

Units: 0.4

Lachie Ash 25+/Nick Daicos 25+/Lachie Whitfield 25+

Bookmaker: TAB $2.00

Units: 0.45

Darcy Cameron AGS

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.00

Units: 0.45

St Kilda v Brisbane Lions

Brisbane -9.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 0.5

Zac Bailey Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.25U 2+ $2.20

0.1U 3+ $5.00

0.05U 4+ $15.00

0.01U 5+ $51.00

StK/BL

NWM u27.5 Disposals

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.92

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 0.5

Fremantle v Richmond

Sam Switkowski MOST Goals

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $41.00

Units: 0.05

Essendon/North Melbourne

Lachie Dovaston 15+ Disposals

Bookmaker: TAB $3.80

Units: 0.2

TOTAL u189.5

Bookmaker: bet365 $1.91

Units: 0.5

Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles

West Coast +26.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 0.5

Carlton v Melbourne 

Q1 o44.5 TOTAL

Bookmaker: Bet365/TAB $1.90

Units: 0.5

Carlton v Melbourne 

Patrick Cripps AGS

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $2.70

Units: 0.25

NBA Plays

HOU@CHI

Chicago +9.0

I would've shuddered at this one a few weeks ago. The Bulls were awful after the trade deadline having acquired 5 guards for some reason. However they've shown improved cohesion having covered 7 of their last 10 games. They've got a 3-day break here and a few training days. The Rockets on the other hand have been cranking up the starters mins (11 games in 19 days) and been getting it done in the last few with unsustainably high 3P%. I think they'll struggle to blow out the Bulls who are on fresh legs and will crank up the pace. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.85

Units: 0.55

LAL@DET

De’Andre Ayton u18.5 PRA

Ayton has cleared this line at 11% against the top 5 paint defences in the league this season. Today the Lakers have finally got their whole centre rotation available with Kleber returning which may see a reduction to his mins.  

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.86

Units: 0.5

MEM@ATL

Dyson Daniels o13.5 Points

Took on a bigger usage load with Jalen Johnson out against the Warriors and I'm expecting more of the same today. We've played the Grizzlies total lack of rim defence before with great success. Daniels takes 50%+ of his shots at the rim so we should see a layup clinic. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.96

Units: 0.5

TOR@UTH

Sandro Mamukelashvili o17.5 PR

The Raptors are gonna need a lot of Sandro tonight. They’re on a 4 hour cross-country B2B without Quickle, Poetl or CMB against a UTH team that I can see putting up a fight here.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.80

Units: 0.55

SAC@CHA

Lamelo Ball o5.5 Q1 Points

The plan seems to be for Lamelo to just go out and get off as many shots as he can early. His Q1 usage (38%) is astronomical in the last 10. Then he just chills after that and Brandon Miller takes the reins. Sacramento is about as soft as matchups get. There’s a lot of variance in small samples like a quarter but he’ll be getting off enough shots to do some damage. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.96

Units: 0.5

TOR@LAC

Clippers -3.5

The Raps have a bunch of guys questionable and they’re all legitimate concerns. They’re on the end of a high-travel 5-game road trip so they’re all probably tired. Poetl’s back is fried. Ingram has been banged up for a month and Quickley’s injury cant be great if Toronto were concerned enough to add Fultz to the roster. The Clippers on the other hand are back to full strength. Kawhi is questionable but it seems to be purely procedural as he’s played through that tag in the last 3 games. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 0.5

IND@LAL

Pascal Siakam o5.5 Q1 Points

I don’t see with these lineups how anyone can guard anyone. Should be a party time, silly season shoot em up.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.83 

Units: 0.55

CLE/MIA 

Q1 o62.5 Points

Since Powell and Herro have been starting together the Heat can’t defend anyone and they’ve gone even smaller today. On the other side of the court the Cavs are also small and quick and will struggle to defend the constant fast drives from the Heat early. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 0.5

DAL/DEN

Q1 o63.0 Points

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.90

Units: 0.5

NYK@CHA

Charlotte Win

The Hornets come into this one off a soft win with low minutes for the starters and a soft home schedule. The Knicks have been knocked around and pumped the mins into their guys to crawl over the line vs the Pels. You wouldn’t think it but the Hornets actually have a better record recently against +550 teams and they would’ve focussed on this one from way. Over the last 15 games the Hornets are #1 in NETRTG by a country mile.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.93

Units: 0.5

NYK@CHA

Coby White Threes

We’re already on the Hornets partly due to the high efficiency three point shooting matchup versus the Knicks. The best spot here in terms of the match shop is three-point shooting versus the Knicks bench unit. We were on Minott a few days ago and since then Jaden Hardy and Jeremiah Fears have gone bananas against them as sixth men. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units:

0.2U 3+ $2.60 (Sportsbet)

0.1U 4+ $5.00 (Sportsbet)

0.025U 5+ $9.00 (Bet365)

0.025U 6+ $21 (Sportsbet)

LAC/IND

Isaiah Jackson o12.5 Points+Rebounds

His rotations match up nicely with the Indiana bench unit and a smaller centre in Micah Potter. Knows this arena well and will dominate the paint in what I project to a little extra on the mins front around 20-21. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.00

Next Best: Pointsbet $2.10 (o13.5)

Units: 0.35

Isaiah Jackson Double-Double

Bookmaker: Bet365 $11.50

Next Best: TAB $10.00

Units: 0.05

LAC/IND (cont.)

Q1 Total o58.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.97

Units: 0.45

Darius Garland Q1 Points

Bookmaker: Bet365/Sportsbet

Units: 

0.2U 6+ $2.15 (Sportsbet)

0.15U 7+ $2.70 (Bet365)

NOP@TOR

Scottie Barnes Triple Double

Bookmaker: Bet365/Pointsbet $16.00

Units: 0.1

CHA/PHI

Q1 TOTAL o59.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 0.5

Leonard Miller o20.5 Points and Rebounds

Miller time. Like Minott, a bit of a niche Sharps favourite. Under-utilised in Minnesota but the Bulls are realising they might’ve accidentally got something right for once. Getting more minutes game by game and runs into the perfect match-up here. Already awful in the paint, the Grizz will likely limit their only centre in Omax to 22-25 mins and have no one off the bench. Especially if Hendricks sits (currently questionable). Over the last 15 games Miller has taken 55% of his shots within 5 feet which is top 10 in the league.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.80

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.95 (o21.5)

Units: 0.55