AFL Round 1 & NBA Week 21 (2026)

AFL Plays

CARL/RICH

No time for write ups sorry folks....

Sam Banks o20.5 Disposals

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 0.5

Elijah Hollands 20+ Disposals

Bookmaker: TAB $2.15

Units: 0.4

Sam Lalor 2+ Goals

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $4.20

Units: 0.1

ESS/HAW

Jarman Impey 20+ Disposals (19+)

Imp was playing injured towards the back end of 2025 and in the finals. Prior to that he had covered this number 13/15 times. Last week can be forgiven as GWS were the toughest matchup defensively last season and that looks to have continued. The Bombers finished 2025 playing a more direct game style which saw some oppo defenders rack up some nice numbers.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.72

Next Best: Ladbrokes 20+ $1.83

Units: 0.7

Western Bulldogs/GWS

Western Bulldogs -20.5

A big emotional win for the Giants last week. They’ve got a habit of getting up when the world is against them. Their bottom 10 are full of kids and might struggle to bring that intensity again. The Dogs covered 80% of games at the dome and it’s going to be even harder to stop their centre bounce game with the new rules. The Hawks midfield aren’t Bont/English/Libba/Richards who should really destroy a short handed GWS guts. Naughton and Darcy will also cause serious issues for Laverde and Buckley.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 0.5

Tom Liberatore o23.5 Disposals

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 0.5

Bailey Dale u22.5

Battling knee soreness and playing the toughest designated kicker DVP in the league. I watched the Dogs closely last year and Bevo really looked for any reason to drag Dale when he was poor defensively. He’s less involved, lost the kick outs and could conceivably be benched late in a blowout to save his knee. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 0.5

Finn Callaghan u28.5

My hip hurts. And I’m playing the Dogs away. Sad Finn. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 0.55

Jake Stringer 2+ Goals

We’re on the Dogs but this’ll be a shootout and String is a friend of the dome from his Dons and Dogs days. Top 3 in per game IN50 targets last year and 5.4 last week. He’ll have his chances. Has covered 8 of this last 11 on this mark and 4 of those games he was sub!

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.77

Units: 0.6

Collingwood/Adelaide

Riley Thilthorpe Goals

The Saints when they were able to pop it to the top of the goal square couldn’t really be stopped. So the Pies forced them wide inside 50 because ol m8 Frampton was a total liability. If the Crows can beat the defensive zone, Thilthy will have an unimpeded run at the ball with Moore. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units: 

0.25U 3+ $2.90

0.1U 4+ $6.20

Wayne Milera o18.5

There’s a bit more of a focus to use the Wayne off HB this season to improve the defensive rebound that really held the crows back last season

Bookmaker: TAB $1.87

Units: 0.5

Brisbane/Sydney

BL H1 +9.5

In adverse spots, the Lions are the best team at beating the odds. There’s lot of quality out but the replacements are adequate. They’ll be strong in the contest and motivated early. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 0.5

Joel Amartey Goals

In saying that, the defensive stocks are particularly poor. We saw Amartey just parking his tuchus at the top of the goal square with Curnow roaming high and folding back. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units:

0.4U 2+ $1.73

0.1U 3+ $3.25

0.05U 4+ $7.25

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Miles Bergman o17.5 Disposals

Trained all pre-season as a midfielder and I think the team sheet is misleading here. We should see Rozee down back and Bergman in the middle. JHF had a hotspot on his foot in the preseason and his midfield mins might be limited. Always happy to back against the north midfield and their allergy to defensive running.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 0.5

Mitch Georgiades Goals

Inside 50 target pig up against Toby Pink in what should be a shootout. Key fwds seem to be the value early on this season.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units: 

0.5U 3+ $1.98 

0.2U 4+ $3.45

0.1U 5+ $7.00

Lachie Dovaston Goals

Port are perennially terrible at defending small fwds. On debut here so a touch speculative but did bag 3 in the preseason and averaged over 2 goals a game in the champs.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

0.2U 2+ $3.75

0.05 3+ $11.50

Colby McKercher u25.5

Too many question marks here. Trained with the midfield in the off season. Has had an injury interrupted lead up. Port have come out and said they'll be putting attention into him. Blamires, Parker and Daniel might be preffered here for defensive stability with Kerch on the wing.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 0.5

Melbourne v St Kilda

StK TEAM TOTAL o95.5

Dominated the inside 50 count last week but the Pies were too smart defensively. I don't expect that to be an issue this week with the Dees trying some stuff. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 0.5

Changkuoth Jiath Disposals

Per minute disposals were through the roof in the preseason lightning interrupted game. They’re looking at getting him the ball with their handball game and the Saints are still up there in terms of defensive concession. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units: 

0.3U 20+ $2.20

0.1U 25+ $6.50

0.05U 30+ $19

Jack Higgins Goals

The Dees are going to go fast today in transition and I can see the little pest getting out the back on turnover. Melbourne have a decent defensive talls set up but the smalls are unaccountable and Higgo could get off the chain.

Bookmaker: TAB 

Units: 

0.4U 2+ $1.70

0.2U 3+ $3.20

0.1U 4+ $7.00

Liam Ryan Goals 2+

A little saver on Ryan here who looked dangerous in the pre season and whose numbers aren’y helped by having played for the Eagles the last 4 years of misery. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.65

Units: 0.3

Gold Coast Suns v West Coast Eagles 

Will Graham Goals

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

0.15U 2+ $4.00

0.05U 3+ $12

NBA Plays

CHI@SAC

Josh Giddey Triple Double

Bookmaker: Bet365 $10

Units: 0.1

CHI@SAC

Chicago 11+ Margin (-10.5)

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $3.30

Units: 0.2

PHI@CLE

Cleveland -11.0

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.90

Units: 0.5

NYK@LAC

Brook Lopez Threes

Reasonably straight DvP play here folks. KAT playing drop and BroLo getting more pick and pops with Darius Garland.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

0.3U 2+ $2.05

0.1U 3+ $4.00

IND@SAC

Sacramento -3.5

It hurts to do it but this really isn’t a battle of who is better at basketball, but more who is dumb enough from an organisational perspective to win the game. No one is dumber than the Kings. SAC will play their vets into the ground and IND will play anyone will a basketball IQ lower than sourdough. This is an important L to rack up for Indiana from a lottery % POV. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 0.5

DET@BRK

Detroit -14.5

The Pistons have hit a bit of a rut. They are struggling to adjust to the loss of Ausar. But that shouldn't matter too much against the Nets on a back to back. They’ll be highly motivated and the Nets need to chill on the ol’ winning after taking the last 2. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of the 50 points smashing from earlier in the season.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Everywhere $1.90

Units: 0.5

PHI@MEM

Quentin Grimes o18.5 Points

Some guys when presented the opportunity to scale usage can do it. Others can’t. We saw last season Grimey could go bananas when given the ball and met a good matchup which is what we have here. Nurse is never careful on the mins either. This one should be somewhat competitive as the 6ers are awful without Maxey. PHI also need to win a few here to keep play-in home court. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.91

Next Best: Bet365 $1.86

Units: 0.5

MIA@WAS

Jaime Jaquez o24.5 PR

We love some JJJ without Herro. Also without Ware here so the lane is clear for some Mexican drive-thru against absolutely no one.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 0.5

ATL@DAL

Atlanta Q1 TEAM Total o32.5

High pace Q1s with these two. By the looks Dallas will be trying out some new defensive schemes and some new lineups which I predict to go poorly. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 0.5

Bam Adebayo o6.5 Q1 Points

Usage through the roof with no Herro and Powell here. The 2 fastest Q1 pace teams in the league bricking it up to bits.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.96

Units: 0.5

CHA@SAC

Sacramento TEAM Total u106.5

A bit of a ball handling apocalypse here for the Kings. No Westbrook, Monk or Carter so the duties will fall mostly to perennial offensive skid-mark, Killian Hayes and rook tank commander Nique Clifford. Both teams on a B2B here so pace will be down a touch. Charlotte’s DEFRTG has been trending in elite territory over the last few months (6th). SAC may have learned a lesson from yesterday. They’re now dangerously close to ceding lottery position to the Nets. Throw that ball into the stands purple team. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.96

Units: 0.5

Brandon Miller 2+ Steals

Getting a touch fruity here. I like a steals play when up against some sloppy ball handling. Miller has really stepped up on D lately. 3.4/pg average deflections and has led in that stat all season for the Horndogs. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $3.00 

Next Best: Sportsbet $2.90

Units: 0.25

Moussa Diabate o19.5 Points/Rebounds

Kalkbrenner inactive and an amazing DvP setup.

Bookmaker: TAB/Pointsbet $1.95

Units: 0.5

GG Jackson 20+ Points (miss by one)

Similarly to Williams, a bully inside. This game I see a basically an extended ping pong, lay-up contest. Lots of GG finishing at the rim on the break. Cam Spencer is out so GG will have to push his normal mins up as the Grizzle have a very limited roster now. Just 7-guys on it by the looks. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.05

Units: 0.45

Brandon Williams Q1 Points

Has a great record in DAL’s high pace first quarters. Is a high % paint scorer and MEM have no-one defending the paint at the moment. Kidd went with a new rotation last game which saw him enter earlier than usual, pushing his normal Q1 minutes up by almost 3. If that holds, it’s an easy cash. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units: 

0.3 3+ $1.87

0.1U 5+ $3.50

DEN@SAS

Spurs -2.5

Wemby is out but I love what I’ve seen from the Spurs without him this season. Kornet is a sufficient interior defensive replacement and the Nuggets are pretty banged up and will struggle to stop the Spurs small guards. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.94

Units: 0.95

CHI@LAC

Clippers -11.5

An LA back-to-back for the Bulls. There’s a mini-rivalry forming between the Bulls and the Lakers which have seen some mins stretch out. Giddey looking at 40+ as we speak. The Clippers have lost Garland for this one but he’s just been filler really in the last few weeks. They’re quite capable without him and are the #1 offence over the last 10 games. I don’t really see how the Bulls guard Kawhi. Jalen Smith and most likely Guerschon won’t play. Giddey and Buzelis were on the IR prior to this game which might be some indication that they sit tomorrow. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Everywhere $1.90

Units: 1

CLE@DAL

CLE Q1 o30.5

Back to the well against the rotational DAL mess. They’ll push the pace with a new lineup. Cleveland off a pretty poor loss will be locked in early. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.00

Units: 0.45

Evan Mobley o27.5 Points/Rebounds

DAL’s centre spot is poor with Gafford but even he’s not playing. Also Allen is out and Thomas Bryant sucks so it’s Mobley at centre. His mins limit is off. Cleveland need to keep winning to keep home court but they’re not very good atm so I expect this one to not blow out early. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 0.5

PHO/TOR Q4 u51.5

NOTE: Bet365 will often have a better price here but we avoid betting Q4 unders there as it bafflingly includes OT.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.84

Units: 0.55

POR Win/DET Win

Portland need to win this one and have Rob Williams probably back. Philly struggled today against the Nets G-League team and the injury list is a mile long. 

The Raptors are .561 on the season but .188 against the top 7 inhibitors of points in the paint due to their lack of outside shooting. Detroit get their full complement of starters back with Ausar in to terrorise.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.19

Units: 0.4