AFL Grand Final & Round 7 AFLW (2025)

AFL Grand Final!

Geelong Cats/Brisbane Lions

TOTAL o173.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

Geelong -10.5

We’re keeping it simple today. Geelong have been the best team all year. They’ve had an incredible run with the health of their list, which means a lot on the last day of the season. They will be missing Stewart but performed well without him earlier in the season. They still have 4 quality key tall to rely on. On the other hand, the Lions are missing multiple first team players and will have to rely on youth. You don't want to bring too much inexperience GF day and the Lions will be playing 8 players under the age of 23. Also as sub, you can consider Lachie Neale 75% out. The Lions will also be without Berry and look soft in the midfield where more often than not these games are won. The Cats have a great mix of contest with Atkins and Dangerfield. And  speed with Smith and Holmes. As the game wears on, their spread should become too much for the Lions. 

Bookmaker: Betr $1.95

Units: 0.5

Geelong -5.5 Second Half

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 0.5

Geelong Second Half Margin 37+

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $9.00

Units: 0.1

***Norm Smith Medal***

Ollie Dempsey

There’s been a few wings take this medal out in games where things have gotten out of hand which may happen today. Dempsey gets a great matchup on the wing and made the most of it with 3 goals in the QF.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $29

Units: 0.05

Tom Atkins

As we said before, Atkins could get off the leash today and thrive in the contest against a younger midfield. Might need to ass a goal or 2 along with 12 tackles and 25 touches.

Bookmaker: TAB $41

Units: 0.05

Tom Atkins 20+ Disposals

Another matchup play. Should have a soft matchup. With Mullin to McCluggage and Dunkley to Dangerfield that leaves only younger players in the Lions group who he can bully around the ball. Has covered 6 of his last 8.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.15 (* miss by one)

Units: 0.8

Gryan Miers 20+ Disposals

Not really sure why we’re getting such a low Gryan number. Has covered this one off all season. Has a low game against the Lions earlier in the year, but that was a slippery night game when everyone went under. Is 19/23 on the year here.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.80 (* miss by one)

Units: 1.1

Jack Martin Goals

We like the Cats today, and Martin seems to be the one who will get a favourable matchup. Gardiner did a great job in the QF covering off Jezza so he’ll probably take him again. Danger will have Starcevic to deal with when forward. Lester should move onto Stengle. Neale to Andrews. Wilmot to Mannagh. That leaves Martin who will hopefully get loose. The Lions have bigger problems. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet 

Units:

1U AGS $1.60

0.2U 2+ $4.00

0.1U 3+ $13

0.05U 4+ $51

Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals

Expecting the Cats to dominate around the ball and there be plenty of work for Zorko to do down back. The Cats will back their system in and let Zorko do his thing which last week included multiple turnovers. Close goes to him when the ball stops but it’s not a tag. Has a great record against the Cats amongst some games in the second half of the year when he was in-game managed due to a foot injury. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.62 (* miss by one)

Units: 1.2

Will Ashcroft 6+ Marks

With Neale sub, Ashcroft will find himself playing more of a midfield sweeping role and has covered this one in 5 of his last 7 games.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 0.45U 6+ $3.30

Kai Lohmann Goals

Rayner should get pushed higher up the ground with OMac playing and Lohmann becomes the primary small threat with CC down on form.

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

0.65U 2+ $2.40

0.2U 3+ $5.00

AFLW

Geelong/Hawthorn

TOTAL u81.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units: 1

Mac Eardley Disposals

Switched back last week taking some kick outs. Everist is out so she's needed back there even more. Hawks have brought in 2 forwards as well. Expected the Hawks to cop a fair few IN50s against here.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $3.75

Units: 0.35

Caitlin Thorne AGS

Excellent kick which is what we like. Crockett-Grills is out and there's a decent chance she spends more time deep. Speculative.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $5.25

Units: 0.25

Melbourne/Gold Coast

Eden Zanker Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units: 

0.5U 2+ $2.15

0.2U 3+ $5.00

Essendon/Geelong

Tess Craven AGS

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.4U AGS $3.25

Emma King Goals

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

0.5U AGS $2.25

0.1U 2+ $8.50

WB/COLL

Britt Bonnici - MOST Disposals

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.80

Units: 0.5

Dee Berry AGS

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $3.35

Units: 0.4

St Kilda/Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide Win

Port are a class above in talent but have been unlucky to not get a win against high quality opposition in the last few weeks. Robbed by a terrible call against the Cats last week and went close against a quality Demons team the week before. The Saints on the other hand have had soft games in the last fortnight and their form line is deceptive. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.85

Units: 1.05

Mathilda Scholtz Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.5U AGS $2.35

0.1U 2+ $11

TOTAL o78.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Adelaide/Sydney

Anne Hatchard Goals

Put fwd last week to great effect with Gould and Randall out. Has 5 win the last 2 weeks. The Swans always have trouble with good overhead marks. 

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.8U AGS $1.80

0.15U 2+ $4.50

0.05U 3+ $17

Brisbane/Richmond

Neesa Dooley AGS

The little speed daemon is constantly getting over the back and terrorising defences. Should be a fair few goals kicked today.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.20

Units: 0.75

Ruby Svarc AGS

Good value here. Always at the feet of Smith and Davidson.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.65

Units: 0.6

West Coast/GWS

West Coast -9.5

The Eagles have not been favoured by the conditions in the last few weeks. As a younger, highly skilled team the the wet conditions in the Derby two weeks ago weren't for them and then after such a brutal game and having lost two players in Swanson and Painter, they got flogged away to the Dees. This on the other hand is a post Derby game for the Giants who are on the biggest road trip in the league and should struggle in this one against a highly motivated Eagles team.

Bookmaker:  Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

West Coast 25+ Margin

Bookmaker:  Sportsbet $3.60

Units: 0.3

West Coast 61+ Margin

Bookmaker:  TAB $51

Units: 0.05

Kellie Gibson Goals

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units:

0.7U AGS $1.85

0.2U 2+ $6.00