AFL Finals & Round 4 AFLW (2025)

Adelaide/Collingwood

Tri-Bet 24.5 ‘Either team under 24 points’ (under Margin markets) 

This on the surface looks like a bit of a ‘it’s happened before so it’ll happen again’ bet considering how close these games have been in the past. But the conditions that caused these close contests still exist. Adelaide and Collingwood rank 1 and 2 in defence this season and the Pies will almost certainly put a number behind the ball again to protect their small backline agains the monsters. Adelaide have been too good to lay down and get smashed here and the Pies are too experienced and well coached to get sprung with a belting. Essentially a half bet on the Pies and a half bet on the under. Only an X-Score outlier will bury us here. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.75

Units: 1.2

Jordan De Goey u20.5

De Goey was strong against the Demons but that’s an outlier in what has been an injury interrupted season. Finals are a different beast and find those out who aren’t 100% fit. Has only covered this in 1 of his last 13 games and the smart money is on the under. Has been subbed in 3 of his last 13 as well which always presents a risk. Really struggled in this matchup a few weeks ago with only 11. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.91

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Geelong/Brisbane

Brisbane +6.5

Brisbane have the wood on the Cats having won the last 3. And in general teams that play quick and through the corridor have the best of the Cats. The Lions have also overcome their troubles at the G having won 6 off their last 7 nullifying the home ground advantage. This is basically a neutral venue. For the last few seasons the Lions have just gotten up for these big games and while the Cats have a great winning record since the bye, they’ve basically been playing the Northern Bullants the whole time. Not a great preparation. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Lachie Neale u24.5

Neale comes into the team off a long lay-off into finals pressure. The last few times these teams have played, the Cats have put Tom Atkins on him and he’s struggled with 17 and 20. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.92

Units: 1

Hugh McCluggage u25.5

Highly likely to cop the Mullin tag. Mullin went to him in Round 15 for 22 touches and when he goes to someone this year, he’s only been beaten once by Ed Richards in Round 11. Without a tag it’s still a final and tough to pick up big numbers.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.92

Units: 1

Zac Bailey Goals

With Neale in the side, Bailey shouldn’t be needed as much to fold back as a wing and help the Lions on transition. With attention probably going to Rayner, Neale and McCluggage, he can get free ahead of the ball. Averaging 3.8 shots per game in his last 10 games. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units:

0.65U 2+ $2.40

0.2U 3+ $5.25

0.1U 4+ $18.00

Fremantle/Gold Coast

Fremantle -7.5

The Suns have a very inexperienced finals team. While the Dockers are also young they also have a big home-ground advantage against a Gold Coast team that has been poor on the road this season. The Suns have covered in only 33% of their road games this season and 20% since Round 6. We'll have some slipperness around by the looks of things which only plays into the hands of Freo. The Suns look to have their full team in but there are fitness concerns around Humphrey, Rioli and Flanders. In similar conditions Freo beat the Suns at Carrara which not many teams have done this season. Freo are coming home with wet sail, beating the Dogs convincingly and what was it a de facto final and having won 12 of their last 14 games. They seemed to have the Suns covered on every line with possibly only the midfield being an area whether the Suns can inch ahead. All in all though, everything points to Freo advancing. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.90

Units: 1

GWS/Hawthorn

Josh Battle u16.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

James Sicily u20.5

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.95

Units: 1

***AFLW***

Melbourne/Richmond

Paige Scott AGS

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.50

Units: 0.6

Eden Zanker 2+ Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365/Sportsbet $2.50

Units: 0.6

Gold Coast/GWS

GWS -7.5

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 1

Tarni Evans Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.45 2+ $3.00

0.15 3+ $8.50

Carlton/Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs +17.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Carlton/Western Bulldogs

TOTAL u70.5 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

Hawthorn/St Kilda

TOTAL u76.5 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 2

Gold Coast/GWS

Isabelle Huntington AGS

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.80

Units: 0.5

Adelaide/Brisbane

Brisbane +5.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

West Coast/Port Adelaide

TOTAL u70.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

Essendon/Geelong

TOTAL u73.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88 (also Sportsbet available)

Units: 1

Adelaide/Brisbane

TOTAL u83.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1.05