AFL Finals & AFLW Round 5 (2025)

Adelaide/Hawthorn

Josh Weddle Goals

Weddle switched forward last week and had 7 targets inside forward 50 for 0.1 and a miss. He could’ve had 2 or 3 if it wasn’t for the elite defensive work of Conor Idun. He probably starts on the wing on Curtain and potentially swings forward later. Even so, the Crows have been vulnerable to wings getting forward. Sidebottom kicked 3 last week and the week before that Dylan Stephens kicked 2 and Scott had 1. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Pointsbet

Units: 

0.75U AGS $2.35 (PB)

0.15U 2+ $7.75 (SB)

0.05U 3+ $36 (PB)

0.05U LGS $31 (SB)

Jai Newcombe u23.5

These ADE/HAW games are always tight, low-disposal contests. Newcombe comes off an easy, free flowing day game against the Giants. In the past few matchups he’s copped Sam Berry tracking him everywhere for 19 and 15 touches. Adelaide are tough at home, it’s a final and Newcombe is their major midfield threat so if not Berry, then maybe Dawson will track him. After that in the Hawks midfield, there’s not much depth so covering him off goes a long way.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Next Best: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Brisbane/Gold Coast

Josh Dunkley o25.5

Has some great numbers without Neale and was embarrassed by Rowell last time out. Expecting the multi-premiership player to show his finals experience tonight. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1.05

Cam Rayner Goals

Keeping it simple here. With the lack of fwds, the Lions seem to be settled on parking his ass in the goal square. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

0.75U 2+ $2.20

0.25U 3+ $4.50

0.1U 4+ $13.00

Matt Rowell u27.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.93

Units: 1

***AFLW***

Collingwood/Sydney

Kalinda Howarth AGS

The Swans are a gun outfit but vulnerable on the other end. The scrawny tip rat Kal is very sharp around goals.

Bookmaker: Bet365/Ladbrokes $2.50

Units: 0.65

Carlton/Gold Coast

Bree Harrington Goals

With Torpey rucking and Austin omitted we’ll see Harrington deeper than usual. Her contested marking can’t be stopped against a defensive outfit as small as GC. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Next Best: Bet365

Units:

0.85U AGS $2.10 (Lads)

0.2U 2+ $6.00 (Bet365)

GWS/Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs -12.5

The Dogs metrics have been impressive without getting the W. The Giants are now the clear worst team in the comp.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1

Ellie Blackburn Goals

The skipper is a permanent forward now and has been peppering the sticks. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Pointsbet $2.00

Units: 0.9

Izzy Huntington Goals

Will be a fun hate watch. Parked in the goal square and is capable of missing from 10m straight in front. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.65

Units: 0.6

Hawthorn/Adelaide

TOTAL o74.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

Niamh Kelly Goals

Bookmaker: TAB/Bet365

Units:

0.4U AGS $3.50 (TAB)

0.1U 2+ $21 (Bet365)